Movies · resolved market
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b551fa8644eeec08deba27c1e5af9e708650481b86cf2787c10d4ea53098a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 28c | 25,923$7,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,656.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 26c | 25,097$6,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,543.6 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 31c | 12,588$3,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,695.49 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 31c | 11,551$3,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,009.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 42c | 11,273$4,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,557.03 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 28c | 8,156$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,889.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 7,543$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,233.74 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 26c | 7,530$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,588.23 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa12…e785backed Yes | 32c | 5,988$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,073.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 5,900$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,734.34 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 29c | 4,668$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,328.4 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,625$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 26c | 4,420$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.54 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 27c | 3,590$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 26c | 3,461$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.68 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 27c | 3,409$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.94 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…e1b2backed Yes | 32c | 3,166$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,114$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.84 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 3,091$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.86 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 24c | 3,050$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.99 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,941$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.79 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 15c | 2,555$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed No | 54c | 2,084$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,050$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.36 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 71c | 1,889$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa9…aab1backed Yes | 30c | 1,861$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 67c | 1,854$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.15 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 27c | 1,796$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.47 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 42c | 1,787$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Yes | 23c | 1,700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +325.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…8756backed Yes | 27c | 1,677$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 21c | 1,659$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.81 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,597$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 23c | 1,550$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.96 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,500$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.17 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 27c | 1,354$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.74 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 26c | 1,239$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.38 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 30c | 1,140$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 65c | 1,029$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed No | 75c | 1,001$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 1,001$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.95 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d7…0a81backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 79c | 900$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.6 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 67c | 898.07$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.23 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 76c | 875.31$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 33c | 838.5$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.6 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 70c | 828.22$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 12c | 815.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.12 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes | 28c | 800$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 24c | 777$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.52 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 36c | 700$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 25c | 670.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0763…4f0dbacked Yes | 37c | 647.17$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 27c | 640.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 68c | 633.24$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.13 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…b2c1backed Yes | 40c | 625.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 21c | 600$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.1 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 20c | 599.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.77 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 58c | 597.56$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.61 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 38c | 549.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed No | 73c | 548.14$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 29c | 540$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 65c | 532.01$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 71c | 509.19$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.66 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 46c | 504$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 494.51$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.95 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 37c | 478.72$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 11c | 465.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.66 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 42c | 451.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.95 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 415.19$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.29 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…549fbacked Yes | 25c | 406.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 31c | 400.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.64 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 26c | 400$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 32c | 400$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 393$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.26 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…d208backed Yes | 46c | 392.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…6cd3backed Yes | 28c | 378.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…c7e8backed Yes | 27c | 374.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…f1c3backed Yes | 27c | 371.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 33c | 363.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 41c | 357.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.09 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…f95abacked Yes | 39c | 353.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 21c | 350$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 29c | 342.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…a7bcbacked No | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed Yes | 18c | 307.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +259.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 26c | 303.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked Yes | 23c | 299.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…ab13backed Yes | 34c | 298.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 30c | 290.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 280.21$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 276.39$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.71 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 19c | 273.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.45 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 32c | 271.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed No | 74c | 270.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.