TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$293,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$275,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8795…7544backed Yes28c25,923$7,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,656.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+110%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes26c25,097$6,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,543.68334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes31c12,588$3,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,695.498330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes31c11,551$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,009.31533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes42c11,273$4,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,557.035532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes28c8,156$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,889.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes31c7,543$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,233.7432639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes26c7,530$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,588.231799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa12…e785backed Yes32c5,988$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes20c5,900$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,734.344017.5%7 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes29c4,668$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.48836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked Yes25c4,625$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,466.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes26c4,420$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.544734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes27c3,590$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,607.535040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes26c3,461$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.682626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes27c3,409$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,487.946434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2dd…e1b2backed Yes32c3,166$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes30c3,114$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.846222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c3,091$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.8650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes24c3,050$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.993920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes31c2,941$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.794544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed Yes15c2,555$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.01475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+185.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5bf…7851backed No54c2,084$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes21c2,050$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.3617041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No71c1,889$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.052832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa9…aab1backed Yes30c1,861$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.17966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No67c1,854$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.156622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes27c1,796$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.473935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes42c1,787$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.74540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8377…4198backed Yes23c1,700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+325.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb71…8756backed Yes27c1,677$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+267.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes21c1,659$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.8117821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes28c1,597$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.141968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes23c1,550$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.967135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes36c1,500$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.1719031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes27c1,354$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.742955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes26c1,239$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.385440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed Yes30c1,140$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes36c1,100$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.772934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked No65c1,029$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.951723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed No75c1,001$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7505244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No66c1,001$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.953666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d7…0a81backed Yes29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No79c900$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.613150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No67c898.07$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.232231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No76c875.31$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.74650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes33c838.5$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.67126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No70c828.22$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes12c815.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.1215739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes28c800$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+71.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes24c777$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.52456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes36c700$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.172045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes25c670.67$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.18119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-63.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0763…4f0dbacked Yes37c647.17$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Yes27c640.32$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.852437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No68c633.24$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.135529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3c…b2c1backed Yes40c625.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes21c600$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.18422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes20c599.7$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.7718444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No58c597.56$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.613754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes38c549.97$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf215…9114backed No73c548.14$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…be05backed Yes29c540$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No65c532.01$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.341947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No71c509.19$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.662352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes46c504$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No72c494.51$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.959442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes37c478.72$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.641631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes11c465.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.666955.1%38 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes42c451.09$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.959231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No72c415.19$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.292751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc5…549fbacked Yes25c406.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes31c400.83$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.643619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes26c400$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.24427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08f4…7700backed Yes32c400$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2711154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+57.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes32c393$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.2629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e8…d208backed Yes46c392.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3a…6cd3backed Yes28c378.86$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+155.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a1…c7e8backed Yes27c374.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+274.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Yes27c371.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+111.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf587…1419backed Yes33c363.4$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.611741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes41c357.16$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.093828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf667…f95abacked Yes39c353.28$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes21c350$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2756229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba3f…8b64backed Yes29c342.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+71.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f9…a7bcbacked No75c333.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…4b19backed Yes18c307.89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+259.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes26c303.03$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.57416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Yes32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked Yes23c299.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x577e…ab13backed Yes34c298.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes30c290.25$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.642035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c280.21$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No70c276.39$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7113135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes19c273.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4523751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes32c271.8$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.132528%7 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x714d…6e05backed No74c270.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.