Movies · resolved market
Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837d4dd0a296710c7b1ff6174d2cc608bc0f9d4b0913501a831135eedfb00800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 41,807$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 1c | 35,605$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 10,694$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,307$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 1c | 9,898$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,252$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,870$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1d…3a2dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,019$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…2d11backed Yes | 1c | 3,938$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 3,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 4c | 3,342$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 0c | 3,048$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,900$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 8c | 2,549$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 2c | 2,451$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…8a2cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,157$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,126$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 1c | 1,009$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 2c | 943.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 1c | 917.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 787.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 610$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…0414backed Yes | 5c | 572.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba2…53ddbacked Yes | 7c | 548.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…3ae2backed Yes | 8c | 501$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9969backed Yes | 4c | 480.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…6414backed Yes | 5c | 193.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.