Movies · resolved market
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa63303f9fa7b65f48ad33584ab6147280c1aa82bd16c01738d12b6ce55cdc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 29,649$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.78 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…403cbacked Yes | 10c | 11,648$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88e…74b7backed Yes | 7c | 9,742$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 7c | 7,529$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.7 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 6,997$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.7 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 6,890$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.65 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…dea6backed Yes | 8c | 5,696$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,978$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.93 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…a016backed Yes | 8c | 3,727$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 10c | 2,710$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 2,700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.47 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c38…093abacked Yes | 8c | 2,575$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 10c | 2,528$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.51 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…31e9backed Yes | 9c | 2,193$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…3950backed Yes | 10c | 2,154$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…8e4abacked Yes | 9c | 2,069$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…0a9dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,045$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…3c21backed Yes | 11c | 1,916$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,698$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa12…e785backed Yes | 9c | 1,611$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87af…d36fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,491$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 11c | 1,464$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 7c | 1,420$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…08b5backed Yes | 10c | 1,358$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 5c | 1,357$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…2eb6backed Yes | 6c | 1,302$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…3c36backed Yes | 8c | 1,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 1,141$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…9579backed Yes | 4c | 1,126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…77acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,120$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…64ecbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked Yes | 9c | 1,088$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 12c | 1,073$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb78…11febacked Yes | 9c | 1,043$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,038$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…d5a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,027$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 9c | 1,005$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 15c | 973.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 898$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…a1cebacked Yes | 11c | 892.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 878.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…4325backed Yes | 9c | 852.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…f656backed Yes | 9c | 835.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0763…4f0dbacked Yes | 12c | 754.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…540dbacked Yes | 8c | 753.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 10c | 730$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee9…b637backed Yes | 7c | 707.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…8262backed Yes | 10c | 703.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…549fbacked Yes | 7c | 696.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…1f80backed Yes | 7c | 688.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac4…7599backed Yes | 15c | 678.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…fabfbacked Yes | 12c | 627.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 619.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…c92fbacked Yes | 9c | 610.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…0426backed Yes | 11c | 610.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ecdebacked Yes | 8c | 605.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…2cd7backed Yes | 9c | 555.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…458bbacked Yes | 9c | 554.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…402bbacked Yes | 10c | 551.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 9c | 537.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 11c | 537.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 10c | 518.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 10c | 517.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed Yes | 10c | 509.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…3783backed Yes | 8c | 500.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…ba59backed Yes | 10c | 494.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 10c | 475.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 11c | 472.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…660ebacked Yes | 5c | 468.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 6c | 467.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c7…67ddbacked Yes | 8c | 466.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 7c | 437.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…8692backed Yes | 12c | 428.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 11c | 420$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3627…33c9backed Yes | 6c | 404.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…22eebacked Yes | 7c | 404.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1444…a6b3backed Yes | 8c | 392.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…5a1fbacked Yes | 9c | 384.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 372.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ce…da52backed Yes | 11c | 369.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…feabbacked Yes | 15c | 356.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…2e8ebacked Yes | 7c | 343.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 12c | 341.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 7c | 325$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 8c | 321$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…a3ebbacked Yes | 10c | 312.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…f3ecbacked Yes | 10c | 307.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 8c | 305.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…8257backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…f3e1backed Yes | 9c | 298$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a2…b678backed Yes | 7c | 296.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…4f60backed Yes | 11c | 285.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5304…38eebacked Yes | 13c | 283.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f2…1bdabacked Yes | 9c | 271.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Yes | 8c | 269.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…5621backed Yes | 7c | 267.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2234…453cbacked Yes | 9c | 266.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.