Movies · resolved market
Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x310b7db3e226208b84f1784f8b8cbe99e8f681b3f251637b8e52b27002d7a3fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $332,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 63,826$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 1c | 31,430$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 14,473$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,283$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…08a5backed Yes | 2c | 10,265$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,958$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 0c | 7,206$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb47…2035backed Yes | 1c | 6,248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 1c | 6,153$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…1bbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,078$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 3,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,846$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…8cefbacked Yes | 2c | 2,518$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,296$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 2,231$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,143$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…5a1fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 4c | 1,282$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 2c | 1,211$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6511…400cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 2c | 1,130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5290…487dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc25…ca40backed Yes | 1c | 689.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 2c | 557.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +493.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.