Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e7fa3bd683a276dae0292f0ab910ac18eb76ce7cf014ec9203f6539768735a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,982,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,621,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,982,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 615 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd245…3995backed Yes | 2c | 644,381$16,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,014.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 16c | 113,446$18,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,229.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Yes | 6c | 106,121$5,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,954.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 95,593$3,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.29 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 5c | 63,844$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 5c | 43,557$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 37,049$11,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,209.3 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 32,882$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 7c | 30,500$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 7c | 30,410$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 7c | 29,792$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 3c | 29,577$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.59 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 2c | 27,916$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…6baebacked Yes | 0c | 24,903$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…6ab4backed Yes | 36c | 23,082$8,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,221.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 1c | 23,014$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2d33backed Yes | 9c | 22,888$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…8249backed Yes | 2c | 20,025$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…2d35backed Yes | 12c | 19,996$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 1c | 19,518$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 2c | 19,051$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 9c | 16,258$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.82 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…0db1backed Yes | 4c | 15,766$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…73bfbacked Yes | 18c | 15,244$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…3dcebacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 14,188$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.28 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 27c | 14,068$3,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,792.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…6d42backed Yes | 8c | 13,182$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 34c | 12,839$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 2c | 12,400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…95f6backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 10c | 10,994$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.61 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 13c | 10,681$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…3eb6backed Yes | 4c | 10,532$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed Yes | 6c | 10,392$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…98a9backed Yes | 5c | 10,306$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…3955backed Yes | 14c | 8,744$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 6c | 8,692$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.8 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 74c | 8,500$6,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5ad6backed Yes | 1c | 8,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…a4ccbacked Yes | 1c | 8,099$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c24dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,073$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451e…e237backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c1c3backed Yes | 2c | 7,630$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 7,562$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a8…b2f1backed Yes | 2c | 7,526$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd204…e7d0backed Yes | 2c | 7,391$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a88…8fe2backed Yes | 8c | 7,235$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…b961backed Yes | 29c | 7,170$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9170…c640backed Yes | 2c | 7,143$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f3…6188backed Yes | 1c | 7,115$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 7,093$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…c0ecbacked Yes | 2c | 6,955$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 0c | 6,745$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…b51dbacked Yes | 35c | 6,675$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 3c | 6,648$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…d5f4backed Yes | 13c | 6,501$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…3dacbacked Yes | 6c | 6,291$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 11c | 6,072$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 0c | 6,065$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…bf57backed Yes | 3c | 5,940$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…5cfcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,940$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,668$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 14c | 5,510$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…326bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,393$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…7fe6backed Yes | 5c | 5,302$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…3ed4backed Yes | 3c | 5,296$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb773…9be1backed Yes | 2c | 5,202$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…7b53backed Yes | 10c | 5,039$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,925$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 2c | 4,838$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 16c | 4,730$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…4369backed Yes | 29c | 4,551$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 6c | 4,544$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.46 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…0caabacked Yes | 16c | 4,527$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9858…c981backed Yes | 26c | 4,293$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…ca9fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,061$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…a9e5backed Yes | 2c | 4,057$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes | 26c | 4,047$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…9d32backed Yes | 2c | 3,971$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…b412backed Yes | 1c | 3,931$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…e35fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,909$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 13c | 3,900$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…6043backed Yes | 19c | 3,883$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 5c | 3,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df5…90fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,373$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…7e9ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,328$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…9524backed Yes | 2c | 3,197$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,182$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…8f5fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…d86fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,841$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 73c | 2,836$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.12 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 2c | 2,759$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a1…c544backed Yes | 2c | 2,649$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…4078backed Yes | 2c | 2,619$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?Yes won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.