Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1070c27e30447364ed6602778729203d29aaa8860cb0a24779eb3a26f68b245f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,169,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,651,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,169,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 559,644$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.64 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 366,497$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.04 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…717ebacked Yes | 4c | 264,933$10,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,487.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 19c | 151,825$28,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,892.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 2c | 132,207$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.23 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 121,705$15,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,459.45 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes | 8c | 106,009$8,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,526.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes | 1c | 104,235$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…8d31backed Yes | 21c | 100,786$21,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,564.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 5c | 95,927$4,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,617.13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 17c | 57,203$9,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,903.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d19…c3d1backed Yes | 0c | 57,149$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…e81ebacked Yes | 0c | 55,354$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…6143backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…b421backed Yes | 7c | 45,800$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…558ebacked Yes | 9c | 45,099$4,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,267.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 2c | 44,030$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.53 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 6c | 40,379$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…df65backed Yes | 20c | 40,010$8,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,039.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…9207backed Yes | 17c | 36,789$6,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,196.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fa…3145backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…cd60backed Yes | 1c | 31,052$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked Yes | 6c | 21,296$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…c5aabacked Yes | 11c | 19,823$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 6c | 18,731$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked No | 77c | 18,286$14,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,227.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 7c | 18,019$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 11c | 17,635$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.33 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 1c | 17,329$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…c806backed Yes | 4c | 16,176$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…44d3backed Yes | 2c | 16,000$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 15,517$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.06 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0e…d3a4backed Yes | 1c | 15,314$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 11c | 14,795$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…81f9backed Yes | 2c | 14,273$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…127abacked Yes | 1c | 13,955$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 11,558$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.25 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 15c | 11,470$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 13c | 11,214$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 3c | 11,204$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 5c | 10,764$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.42 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb62c…370ebacked Yes | 12c | 10,465$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…073ebacked Yes | 3c | 10,304$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92a…2818backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…d41ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…4dacbacked Yes | 0c | 9,917$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9667…04cbbacked Yes | 10c | 9,745$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 0c | 9,549$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 9c | 9,263$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…73bfbacked Yes | 8c | 8,940$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…b9e3backed Yes | 2c | 8,577$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,539$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 0c | 8,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…2e62backed Yes | 2c | 8,007$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…c77bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,893$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,551$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8391…c8bebacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 6c | 6,930$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.29 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…f7f3backed Yes | 0c | 6,807$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1da…1575backed Yes | 19c | 6,219$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…c1d2backed Yes | 1c | 5,940$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…884dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,258$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed Yes | 10c | 5,255$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0389…74d7backed Yes | 0c | 5,091$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 5,077$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…aa60backed Yes | 1c | 5,006$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…03ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3363…1589backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8f…1d90backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…9e63backed Yes | 0c | 4,945$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…67eabacked Yes | 14c | 4,891$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 7c | 4,574$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 2c | 4,567$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,397$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,380$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ab…157dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…afb1backed Yes | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 3c | 4,284$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…5b61backed Yes | 16c | 4,220$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 3c | 4,205$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 19c | 4,155$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…3f24backed Yes | 3c | 3,872$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…a68cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,748$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.02 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0d…0163backed Yes | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 3c | 3,660$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 10c | 3,619$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.77 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…3f89backed Yes | 0c | 3,504$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…fedbbacked Yes | 21c | 3,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d1…4f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,496$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 3,495$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,471$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.69 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?Yes won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.