Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3e11395bc67c2ad811de3ea4f58d47778e7a7d209eb73bc04a21c5a7472c186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,407,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $838,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,407,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 287,835$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.18 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…c7cabacked Yes | 0c | 66,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 42,223$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.42 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 4c | 41,544$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 7c | 32,361$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 23,775$7,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,459.8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 22,525$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.3 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes | 10c | 20,378$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 30c | 19,676$5,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,813.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…b51dbacked Yes | 35c | 18,375$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…d5f4backed Yes | 6c | 14,652$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…35a9backed Yes | 5c | 14,214$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2d33backed Yes | 4c | 13,807$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 3c | 12,540$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…a6f8backed Yes | 11c | 12,465$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…2d35backed Yes | 6c | 11,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…0caabacked Yes | 7c | 10,848$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…3dcebacked Yes | 7c | 10,500$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 13c | 10,379$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…b421backed Yes | 3c | 9,957$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…1e65backed Yes | 17c | 9,088$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 34c | 8,257$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,922$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 5c | 7,712$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 3c | 7,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1afa…fa42backed Yes | 1c | 7,376$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…fbfcbacked Yes | 6c | 7,127$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 28c | 7,071$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 4c | 6,754$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…3955backed Yes | 6c | 6,576$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 1c | 6,409$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…3414backed Yes | 6c | 6,321$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 4c | 4,735$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 4c | 4,530$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 28c | 4,438$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…2f1bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,083$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217a…afd3backed Yes | 9c | 3,900$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…7fe6backed Yes | 2c | 3,667$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 18c | 3,090$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 3c | 3,081$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed Yes | 3c | 3,031$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…c249backed Yes | 7c | 2,923$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,817$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 5c | 2,812$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c5…41f6backed Yes | 2c | 2,798$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…a7c4backed Yes | 4c | 2,610$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes | 4c | 2,606$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…507ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,540$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 4c | 2,508$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…bd2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,466$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1823backed Yes | 4c | 2,439$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…3eb6backed Yes | 4c | 2,358$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 1c | 2,340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…f53fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…6539backed Yes | 14c | 2,113$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 5c | 2,058$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2a…350abacked Yes | 6c | 2,057$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a88…8fe2backed Yes | 4c | 2,049$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…787ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,045$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,985$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…7a56backed Yes | 6c | 1,770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…9e51backed Yes | 32c | 1,735$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…c439backed Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 5c | 1,621$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 13c | 1,464$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 6c | 1,461$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,347$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…a678backed Yes | 6c | 1,323$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…e6a3backed Yes | 4c | 1,322$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…b9dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,304$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,256$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…684ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecf…03f4backed Yes | 12c | 1,224$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 74c | 1,166$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a0…e570backed Yes | 1c | 1,131$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…7375backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e85…5352backed Yes | 1c | 1,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…9207backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…3f09backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…2689backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…cb0cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…c3bcbacked Yes | 5c | 980.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 24c | 972$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…c456backed Yes | 2c | 952.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 3c | 944.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…2bc9backed Yes | 5c | 936.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 903.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x680c…799bbacked Yes | 15c | 897.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…28c7backed Yes | 3c | 896.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 6c | 894.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…c10dbacked Yes | 4c | 867.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?Yes won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.