Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d3e3531ecc4d6096ffe53c9a34f73ea56ed9b4404f87366e708d3d3a7be699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,683,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,347,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,683,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 216,916$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.06 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 2c | 176,186$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 5c | 138,199$6,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,327.85 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd709…7de0backed Yes | 0c | 137,980$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 35c | 128,458$45,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,583.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 126,919$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.95 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 97,026$22,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,266.75 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…8d31backed Yes | 39c | 88,231$34,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,168.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 0c | 88,120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 7c | 78,057$5,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,744.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…abf8backed Yes | 0c | 65,198$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…08d2backed Yes | 31c | 55,079$16,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,890.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…558ebacked Yes | 17c | 40,091$6,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,856.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 1c | 37,684$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 1c | 37,028$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…9f15backed Yes | 7c | 35,963$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 21c | 35,273$7,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,237.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes | 2c | 35,002$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 31c | 32,291$10,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,139.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…81f9backed Yes | 1c | 32,045$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…717ebacked Yes | 10c | 31,454$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…27babacked Yes | 5c | 31,051$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 1c | 28,941$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…9207backed Yes | 37c | 27,086$10,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,016.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…0061backed Yes | 8c | 25,392$2,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…007fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…5b9fbacked Yes | 0c | 24,698$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92a…2818backed Yes | 0c | 22,888$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…50d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…c5aabacked Yes | 14c | 19,418$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 19c | 18,019$3,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,510.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…bebfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,098$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 14,153$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f1…3548backed Yes | 8c | 14,145$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,784$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 1c | 13,058$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked Yes | 9c | 12,627$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 12,309$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.58 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,550$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 3c | 11,331$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 2c | 10,836$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 15c | 10,799$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.79 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 4c | 10,700$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.42 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…7dadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 18c | 10,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…df65backed Yes | 37c | 10,000$3,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,670 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…97e4backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…d0b0backed Yes | 3c | 9,656$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdb…fda4backed Yes | 1c | 9,531$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 4c | 8,902$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,526$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…f06bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,871$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 2c | 7,855$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1f…06b8backed Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 17c | 7,662$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 6c | 7,595$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +499.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 1c | 7,383$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 15c | 7,318$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked Yes | 0c | 7,060$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…073ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,986$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 6c | 6,568$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 1c | 6,151$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 2c | 5,929$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…0071backed Yes | 2c | 5,734$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 4c | 5,642$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 4c | 5,494$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.77 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a2…0a19backed Yes | 2c | 5,466$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,400$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 5,121$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.84 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…f6bbbacked Yes | 12c | 5,111$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…bfe9backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…98f2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 39c | 5,000$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…44d3backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…cd60backed Yes | 2c | 4,735$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 2c | 4,545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 4c | 4,391$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…7090backed Yes | 2c | 4,391$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…f3e0backed Yes | 8c | 4,286$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 79c | 4,172$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,113$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 8c | 4,050$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.59 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b7…324bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,926$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ae…825dbacked Yes | 39c | 3,823$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 13c | 3,308$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…2386backed No | 77c | 3,236$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…bffdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…3ecebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…65e6backed Yes | 7c | 2,965$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…cedfbacked Yes | 34c | 2,887$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 2,800$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.65 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,771$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.83 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?Yes won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.