Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1f0296f3a016727193d2b45704e0debc3b8048fe0715f8bb1e91550d321872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,812,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,577,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,812,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 60c | 497,684$297,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200,496.39 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 70c | 377,022$263,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113,724.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 59c | 313,755$184,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,701.68 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 69c | 135,595$93,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,629.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 68c | 102,366$69,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,769.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…6b20backed Yes | 35c | 85,574$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,574.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 24c | 65,771$16,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,691.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…8d31backed No | 67c | 53,014$35,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,557.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 66c | 48,290$31,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,363.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 35c | 41,140$14,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,365.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…5a52backed Yes | 76c | 39,694$30,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,543.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…4f84backed Yes | 71c | 37,740$26,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,840.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 51c | 33,637$17,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,179.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 65c | 31,946$20,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,117.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 29,028$8,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,828.31 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…7cbabacked Yes | 73c | 28,953$21,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,844.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba61…5b0abacked Yes | 71c | 26,863$19,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,761.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 9c | 24,510$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbd…21d7backed Yes | 71c | 23,662$16,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,855.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…79a3backed No | 31c | 22,000$6,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,714.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81f…1d8cbacked No | 31c | 22,000$6,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,710 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 69c | 20,654$14,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,353.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed No | 21c | 19,918$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…d6eabacked Yes | 71c | 19,580$13,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,645.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 29c | 19,121$5,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,487.39 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…0084backed Yes | 72c | 18,923$13,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,224.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…9207backed Yes | 34c | 18,722$6,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,327.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…096cbacked Yes | 72c | 18,712$13,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,259.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2190…3a54backed No | 32c | 18,200$5,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,875.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 73c | 18,000$13,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 52c | 17,987$9,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,281.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 64c | 17,895$11,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,447.31 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…6e56backed Yes | 72c | 17,831$12,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ae3abacked Yes | 74c | 17,375$12,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,594.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…73f8backed Yes | 38c | 17,168$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,678.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 71c | 17,108$12,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,913.84 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…08d2backed Yes | 26c | 16,589$4,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,210.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…1494backed Yes | 71c | 16,413$11,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,721.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3223…60cebacked No | 31c | 15,960$4,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,954.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a7…11cdbacked Yes | 70c | 15,872$11,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 42c | 15,693$6,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,107.27 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…80cabacked Yes | 72c | 15,664$11,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,397.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…f6bbbacked Yes | 24c | 15,623$3,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,934.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5d…4ddebacked No | 32c | 15,600$5,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,031 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…230dbacked Yes | 70c | 15,065$10,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,503.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930c…71dabacked Yes | 72c | 14,913$10,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,166.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f1…3548backed Yes | 77c | 14,651$11,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,351.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 5c | 14,565$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,824.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475d…6250backed Yes | 71c | 14,512$10,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,208.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…35eabacked Yes | 72c | 13,996$10,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…65bbbacked Yes | 69c | 13,903$9,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,313.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 35c | 13,700$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,944.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 19c | 13,366$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,795.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…4891backed No | 31c | 13,300$4,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…afd1backed Yes | 5c | 13,171$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,534.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,968.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…df65backed No | 66c | 13,000$8,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,567 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8463…fccdbacked Yes | 69c | 12,963$8,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,974.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 68c | 12,828$8,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,154.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…0fefbacked Yes | 71c | 11,415$8,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…73b9backed Yes | 74c | 11,238$8,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…4bafbacked Yes | 71c | 11,187$7,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…e90ebacked No | 31c | 11,070$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…9a93backed No | 31c | 10,960$3,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,397.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…354fbacked Yes | 70c | 10,949$7,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…520ebacked Yes | 14c | 10,818$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,292.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +609.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…3cc0backed No | 39c | 10,262$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…b967backed Yes | 71c | 10,146$7,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…4fd0backed Yes | 71c | 10,067$7,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,963.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,570 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 37c | 10,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,350 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…7608backed Yes | 71c | 9,944$7,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,883.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 63c | 9,643$6,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,562.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…78babacked Yes | 71c | 9,520$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…66f2backed Yes | 71c | 9,301$6,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…2857backed Yes | 71c | 9,301$6,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 15c | 9,104$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.86 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…3b68backed Yes | 71c | 8,809$6,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 68c | 8,778$5,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,833.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…43b7backed Yes | 71c | 8,330$5,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6839…b806backed Yes | 71c | 8,307$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 77c | 8,121$6,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,230.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 39c | 7,799$3,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…20a7backed Yes | 73c | 7,758$5,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 41c | 7,756$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,555.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…c5aabacked Yes | 22c | 7,299$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,684.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…b3cfbacked Yes | 71c | 7,283$5,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…5fffbacked No | 61c | 7,237$4,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,402.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…d704backed Yes | 69c | 7,200$4,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…6b7bbacked Yes | 10c | 7,032$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 33c | 7,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 71c | 6,990$4,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.6 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 33c | 6,785$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,568.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 37c | 6,775$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,257.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f1…b097backed Yes | 69c | 6,750$4,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f96…db21backed Yes | 69c | 6,750$4,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8a…8593backed Yes | 69c | 6,750$4,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 33c | 6,742$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,504.43 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 30c | 6,501$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,527.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…6365backed Yes | 68c | 6,200$4,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 40c | 6,183$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.