Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04787bbd66241501604f377f11b897879c1593b019bb3363dac0a73e99b4a131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,049,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,534,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,049,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 120,308$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.56 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…5b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 63,830$4,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 14c | 61,470$8,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,701.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 56,133$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.52 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…c7cabacked Yes | 0c | 54,278$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes | 4c | 53,729$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 53,239$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.74 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 46,931$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.09 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 29c | 42,155$12,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,337.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 80c | 38,145$30,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,666.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 34,577$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…3899backed Yes | 4c | 32,673$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…d5f4backed Yes | 23c | 31,098$7,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,048.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…3fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 27,015$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 4c | 18,776$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…3c75backed No | 79c | 18,390$14,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +874.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…3dcebacked Yes | 4c | 16,000$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,846$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…a6f8backed Yes | 4c | 15,342$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 12,705$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0f…7427backed Yes | 20c | 8,980$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…7375backed Yes | 0c | 8,070$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…ae49backed Yes | 4c | 7,823$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7249…c212backed Yes | 0c | 7,655$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 7,499$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…3eb6backed Yes | 2c | 7,054$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…3955backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked Yes | 28c | 6,802$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…68e5backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 2c | 6,572$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…188bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,349$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…9ad7backed Yes | 9c | 6,282$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6d91backed Yes | 4c | 5,517$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e646backed Yes | 1c | 5,494$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…b9dfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,352$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1364…50febacked No | 70c | 5,342$3,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 1c | 5,137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 1c | 5,095$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…42adbacked Yes | 15c | 5,047$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…0ff3backed Yes | 3c | 5,035$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…55c1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…4d4cbacked Yes | 21c | 4,836$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…a7c4backed Yes | 2c | 4,591$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 3c | 4,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…684ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,450$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 75c | 4,012$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +108%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…2689backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…12dcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,663$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…c439backed Yes | 11c | 3,300$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…99cbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,168$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217a…afd3backed Yes | 6c | 3,150$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…a1e0backed Yes | 3c | 3,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…194dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 0c | 2,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 26c | 2,844$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,749$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…bcbcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 9c | 2,577$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…3057backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf73…b864backed Yes | 2c | 2,478$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 21c | 2,468$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…1317backed Yes | 21c | 2,390$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…11f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,345$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…4f10backed Yes | 9c | 2,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…a441backed No | 80c | 2,230$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…7b5fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,222$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123b…75e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,157$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 3c | 2,110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…6fa1backed Yes | 1c | 2,014$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked No | 75c | 2,007$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +974.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb6…e04fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…f657backed Yes | 14c | 1,826$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…5c9abacked Yes | 11c | 1,820$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…2f30backed Yes | 1c | 1,811$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…5575backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754a…b519backed No | 80c | 1,678$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +547.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…ec20backed Yes | 6c | 1,672$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 3c | 1,642$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,561$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afa…aa1abacked Yes | 20c | 1,485$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…5484backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…6539backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…cb66backed Yes | 4c | 1,401$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eae…1eebbacked No | 75c | 1,400$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 64c | 1,300$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…f17bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,267$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…3414backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,189$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 2c | 1,160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…bf30backed Yes | 10c | 1,084$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c2…7a21backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…a151backed Yes | 29c | 1,013$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked No | 75c | 1,003$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?Yes won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.