Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x260fd9d6b10746909a26c2af7a68b409f757c95a07dc57ddd480774a36c8399b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,337,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,506,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,337,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 979,000$3,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,674 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…5a52backed Yes | 9c | 335,971$28,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,800.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 308,113$73,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,585.13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 24c | 306,987$73,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,243.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…6b20backed Yes | 6c | 179,173$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…0e43backed No | 76c | 107,185$81,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,395.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 79c | 103,483$81,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,082.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 12c | 100,510$11,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,819.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 22c | 81,826$17,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,803.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 78,511$23,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,697.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 21c | 68,104$14,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,249.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…b118backed Yes | 9c | 65,292$5,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,605.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…681ebacked Yes | 16c | 59,796$9,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,409.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…d091backed Yes | 3c | 57,107$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 21c | 50,111$10,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,743.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 13c | 49,307$6,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,272.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 32c | 48,732$15,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,651.83 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 6c | 45,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 41,720$10,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,011.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 32c | 40,360$13,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,006.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 18c | 40,301$7,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,418.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 17c | 39,656$6,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,644.9 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 20c | 38,279$7,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,524.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 29c | 31,390$9,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,007.62 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 17c | 29,906$5,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,198.61 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 76c | 26,794$20,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,495.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 6c | 26,415$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.13 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 31c | 25,478$7,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7a…0585backed Yes | 8c | 25,171$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 28c | 25,165$7,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,037.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 24,896$6,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,960.83 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 14c | 24,753$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 28c | 24,665$6,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,846.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 13c | 24,531$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…f6bbbacked Yes | 36c | 24,329$8,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,834.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 34c | 24,058$8,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,230.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 21c | 24,036$4,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,966.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 6c | 22,351$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 8c | 21,966$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…b892backed Yes | 28c | 21,548$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…c7c8backed Yes | 14c | 21,465$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed Yes | 32c | 20,971$6,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,666.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 20,428$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 29c | 20,000$5,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,820 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 14c | 19,777$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 7c | 18,586$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.01 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 30c | 18,404$5,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,528.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 11c | 17,702$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…45f2backed Yes | 23c | 17,019$3,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 74c | 16,999$12,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,348.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 16,795$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.35 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…73bfbacked Yes | 19c | 15,923$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…c77bbacked Yes | 12c | 15,504$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Yes | 36c | 15,203$5,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,426.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 27c | 14,832$4,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,018.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x144b…5dcfbacked Yes | 17c | 14,619$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…7f6cbacked Yes | 43c | 14,100$5,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,992.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…08d2backed Yes | 24c | 14,091$3,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 28c | 14,078$4,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,007.72 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 15c | 13,650$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 33c | 12,697$4,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,187.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 30c | 12,595$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…f7c2backed No | 72c | 12,300$8,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes | 21c | 12,252$2,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…c4f3backed Yes | 26c | 12,131$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…b580backed Yes | 27c | 12,131$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed Yes | 20c | 11,800$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…e40cbacked No | 72c | 11,275$8,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,157 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 9c | 11,173$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 10c | 11,124$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7f…0a84backed Yes | 26c | 11,028$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…f623backed Yes | 26c | 11,028$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,903.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…6afdbacked Yes | 27c | 11,028$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf0…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 11,028$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 32c | 10,910$3,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,454.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2264…647bbacked Yes | 26c | 10,778$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 22c | 10,515$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.23 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…9207backed Yes | 13c | 10,420$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…7b53backed Yes | 17c | 10,358$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…2a1cbacked Yes | 20c | 10,057$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…2d35backed Yes | 29c | 10,043$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…a47fbacked Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9c…e174backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…8dcfbacked Yes | 26c | 9,926$2,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 3c | 9,836$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 32c | 9,784$3,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 15c | 9,435$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 15c | 9,137$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.17 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 5c | 8,950$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…6ab4backed No | 69c | 8,179$5,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 20c | 8,009$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.26 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 7,955$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…c5e0backed Yes | 13c | 7,945$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked No | 78c | 7,599$5,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Yes | 23c | 7,000$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 27c | 6,786$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…0db1backed Yes | 9c | 6,553$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?this page
- Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?Yes won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?No won
- Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.