World Politics · resolved market
Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e9373874f6741e75c415bb0adfc6df76de58a8a850667b2196831394938c289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 36c | 8,748$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,176.04 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…3d0fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,503$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 60c | 2,676$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 49c | 2,199$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.81 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ab…7f03backed Yes | 65c | 2,142$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 39c | 2,000$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…6f20backed Yes | 59c | 1,700$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed Yes | 48c | 1,503$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 46c | 1,422$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…44abbacked Yes | 65c | 1,230$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…cf95backed Yes | 69c | 1,082$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 59c | 950$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 65c | 928.86$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.98 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…e71fbacked No | 35c | 861.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 64c | 861.32$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 68c | 633$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 29c | 632.82$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 73c | 458.26$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…be52backed Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3369…7a6abacked Yes | 66c | 350$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 266.42$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6f…bc71backed Yes | 63c | 234.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 42c | 179.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 67c | 179.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…ac82backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 43c | 175.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed Yes | 60c | 165.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…059ebacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 149.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 71c | 140.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…0091backed Yes | 66c | 110.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 43c | 104.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…bf64backed Yes | 72c | 102.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…3cc3backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 70c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc5…5903backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…34d3backed Yes | 65c | 81.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fb…e35fbacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…daa4backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…b75bbacked Yes | 63c | 72.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…e91abacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…c69cbacked Yes | 68c | 66.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 51c | 66.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a009backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 63c | 48.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb66…9432backed Yes | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…d31fbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 37.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…dd0abacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…3128backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…6121backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…a6c8backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…0306backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…034abacked No | 43c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…341ebacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…5efdbacked Yes | 59c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…87a6backed Yes | 73c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?this page
- Will NEOS win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
- Will SPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
- Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.