World Politics · resolved market
Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e87fd6d0acf2bf174d921fe6ad7be6e9f70ba0a55f46914661d8baef8967d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 38c | 5,461$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.06 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…e71fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,769$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,850$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…6f20backed No | 61c | 1,650$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 35c | 1,585$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…3d0fbacked No | 65c | 1,232$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 42c | 755.84$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed No | 54c | 671.41$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 71c | 610$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…059ebacked Yes | 42c | 543.64$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 38c | 540.75$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.85 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes | 32c | 520.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3369…7a6abacked No | 65c | 350$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 31c | 319.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 26c | 283.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ea…055cbacked Yes | 47c | 219.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6f…bc71backed Yes | 34c | 145.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…3848backed Yes | 38c | 143.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 70c | 125.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 42c | 112.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 111.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…0091backed No | 66c | 111.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a6…936bbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 53.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 26c | 50.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…7222backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 71c | 39.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…2b2dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…dbf7backed Yes | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…21f7backed No | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed No | 54c | 32.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…74d5backed Yes | 50c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…a6c8backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…034abacked Yes | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ÖVP win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?this page
- Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?Yes won
- Will NEOS win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
- Will SPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.