TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbb6f…328b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
32
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will Elon tweet 200-224 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Will Elon tweet 175-199 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT+122.2%+$18.33
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 4-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2024, EDT+164.8%+$32.96
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2024, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Blonde Broker vs Ashleybacked Blonde Broker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+47.2%+$10.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frankfurt beat FC Midtjylland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST+104.1%+$16.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FPÖ win the most seats in the 2024 Austrian legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+78.6%+$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India win the 2024 Chess Olympiad?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Binance or Bybit list $MOODENG by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+25%+$7.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Harrison vs. Vieirabacked Vieira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Who will win the Solheim Cup?backed Europe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Minnesota Lynx win the 2024 WNBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.