CS2 · resolved market
ESL Counter-Strike Quarterfinals: Spirit vs Natus Vincere
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a666772b0779ab250e3cad0a63a9250a4f2dfad8282ef4015c740d401f9e6e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natusof Spirit, Natus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Spirit | 45c | 6,899$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Spirit | 48c | 6,381$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.1 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Natus | 55c | 4,017$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.43 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Natus | 55c | 3,835$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.79 | 646 | 52.8%341 W · 305 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Natus | 55c | 3,189$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Natus | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Spirit | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…3a08backed Spirit | 14c | 704.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d8…3083backed Spirit | 49c | 547.03$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Natus | 53c | 498.5$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Natus | 51c | 392.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…2c29backed Spirit | 50c | 389.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Spirit | 5c | 343.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Spirit | 11c | 275$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b66…561abacked Spirit | 21c | 245.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Spirit | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…0569backed Natus | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb76…a3f0backed Spirit | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Natus | 64c | 204$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…0fe6backed Natus | 55c | 200.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…9e99backed Spirit | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Natus | 67c | 195.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b93…a08abacked Natus | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…5300backed Natus | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ce…ca9abacked Spirit | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…e746backed Spirit | 51c | 155.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Spirit | 40c | 151.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eca…9b3bbacked Natus | 55c | 127.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Natus | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Natus | 74c | 110.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Spirit | 30c | 110.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Natus | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Natus | 53c | 101.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Natus | 54c | 100.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed Natus | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Spirit | 47c | 99.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Natus | 53c | 97.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…7235backed Natus | 55c | 91.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Natus | 55c | 70.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Spirit | 47c | 55.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…0b53backed Natus | 68c | 47.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…328bbacked Spirit | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked Spirit | 45c | 36.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Spirit | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Natus | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…bbeabacked Spirit | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Natus | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Natus | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed Natus | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…9aecbacked Spirit | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.