TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf673…0687

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT4447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+129%+$19.36
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7
Will Team Vitality win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+83.9%+$48.26
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+77.2%+$17.43
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$23.75
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+244.8%+$36.36
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$35.4
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.4
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50.49
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16.59
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$33.1
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+35.1%+$17.57
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT2718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.85
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will Iran strike eight countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$36.68
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+127.3%+$56
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78.27
Houthi strike on Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.26
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.9
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.62
Netanyahu attends Auschwitz commemoration in Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.21
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+300%+$37.49
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+239.1%+$298.86
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$23.95
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+51.5%+$13.6
Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.5
No Israel strike Iran on by Sunday Oct 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.8
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$37.55
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$111.59
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$35.23
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$16.25
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.35
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7.7
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$17.1
Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+150%+$24
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.07
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.85
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.7
Nothing Ever Happens backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT+35.1%+$8.81
All 17 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+102.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+304.1%+$91.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.4m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+100%+$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Benfica beat Red Star Belgrade?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2024, EDT+100%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$45.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20.24
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.