Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump attend NATO Summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76dd3476bebbdb1d807f0f18bfb639e1b1281c876d98980c7b67cd157e3ef300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 6,234$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed No | 3c | 3,443$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 12c | 3,437$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.09 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 2c | 3,166$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked No | 1c | 2,270$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…9902backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked No | 1c | 1,783$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 10c | 1,346$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 2c | 1,260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 1c | 1,257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed No | 1c | 1,165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 4c | 1,041$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508c…25e2backed No | 10c | 999.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 14c | 914.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked No | 13c | 909.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 909.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked No | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked No | 4c | 697.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +164%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…6ea3backed No | 16c | 641.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…9091backed No | 2c | 585$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…a60cbacked No | 3c | 550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f512backed No | 3c | 366.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 4c | 360$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…f3b3backed No | 14c | 346$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked No | 4c | 333.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…b954backed No | 15c | 278.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…a244backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 11c | 191.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 134.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…2efbbacked No | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.