Middle East · resolved market

Will the US strike Iran next?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbba38c85da94f7a5e69f49408fad5331ca169c2f0ccdfb0aea5279dc5b63e1d3

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,120,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $975,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,120,999 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 575 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6b3f…9b74backed Yes	1c	164,295$1,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,546.48	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bbf…221abacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4753…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	37,511$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed Yes	1c	32,432$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.54	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5317…1930backed Yes	2c	29,402$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a0…e05abacked Yes	0c	25,294$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f94…7d96backed Yes	2c	24,026$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.42	46	69.6%32 W · 14 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11dd…7700backed Yes	0c	21,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7c…694ebacked Yes	0c	20,180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d2…2892backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x068e…b64fbacked Yes	0c	15,033$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes	0c	13,481$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	164	17.7%29 W · 135 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes	2c	13,042$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.23	96	4.2%4 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes	1c	12,677$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3fe…f1e1backed Yes	2c	11,602$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b1…e9ebbacked Yes	3c	10,610$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca2…f359backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8e1…8c69backed Yes	1c	9,604$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.22	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc698…642ebacked Yes	4c	8,828$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc06b…ef68backed Yes	1c	7,630$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af9…c53dbacked Yes	18c	7,592$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,350	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc8…fc00backed Yes	0c	7,111$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…858abacked Yes	1c	6,521$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc153…b70bbacked Yes	1c	6,340$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a4…8997backed Yes	2c	6,233$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb3…f14fbacked Yes	0c	6,089$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb15a…fb9ebacked Yes	3c	5,821$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	27c	5,701$1,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,544.17	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	5,639$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.99	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55c7…6849backed Yes	5c	5,596$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	29c	5,562$1,639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,638.89	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd58a…0e4abacked Yes	1c	5,106$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc71e…f509backed Yes	1c	5,027$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1247…c139backed Yes	6c	4,975$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes	4c	4,919$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec51…c132backed Yes	9c	4,420$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede9…6f2fbacked Yes	1c	4,367$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19ce…ca99backed Yes	1c	3,964$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes	3c	3,908$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	45c	3,765$1,692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,072.31	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c5e…7952backed Yes	3c	3,743$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+3.9wins	+0.21per pick	21cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6bc…8613backed Yes	4c	3,303$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0339…5b2cbacked Yes	28c	3,249$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…fad8backed Yes	63c	3,171$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82e0…bebcbacked Yes	6c	3,153$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.82	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e1…5ae3backed Yes	1c	3,132$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.97	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbaf6…f907backed Yes	1c	2,982$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d3…2349backed Yes	1c	2,930$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-57%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No	56c	2,899$1,631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,267.87	225	47.1%106 W · 119 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+25%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23fa…140bbacked Yes	15c	2,873$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-45%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,813$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.65	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27d2…10adbacked Yes	0c	2,799$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes	13c	2,768$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.19	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aee…51a8backed Yes	10c	2,743$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.14	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bd…d9eabacked Yes	16c	2,705$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.72	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	69c	2,663$1,828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$834.33	113	50.4%57 W · 56 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes	26c	2,575$659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.23	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…d3edbacked Yes	1c	2,501$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4f…0019backed Yes	3c	2,397$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae79…4ea5backed Yes	2c	2,306$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…1eeebacked Yes	26c	2,266$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-55%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7068…6bb6backed Yes	6c	2,200$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.57	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.9wins	+0.23per pick	39cpaid	+42%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa051…1bdebacked Yes	1c	2,155$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe575…00c5backed Yes	10c	2,107$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…9309backed Yes	3c	2,064$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes	20c	1,943$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.91	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-5.6wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7623…044cbacked Yes	28c	1,878$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.6	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	-13%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No	49c	1,849$904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$944.84	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aaf…af93backed Yes	24c	1,832$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.61	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x565c…f3c0backed Yes	48c	1,806$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes	28c	1,800$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b57…f9a8backed Yes	3c	1,792$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1714…03eebacked Yes	1c	1,790$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fbd…fe45backed Yes	1c	1,739$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b87…c249backed Yes	2c	1,697$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6014…eac1backed Yes	2c	1,676$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes	26c	1,651$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.38	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2c…d285backed Yes	7c	1,626$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.04	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eed…10eebacked Yes	2c	1,593$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bff…3091backed Yes	15c	1,591$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes	2c	1,569$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf70d…8df7backed Yes	39c	1,535$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	28c	1,513$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5371…83ccbacked Yes	1c	1,505$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	27cpaid	+69.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes	36c	1,474$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.48	76	31.6%24 W · 52 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+70%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed No	76c	1,440$1,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.19	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b47…d45bbacked Yes	53c	1,405$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff29…ea96backed Yes	23c	1,390$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.02	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf7…01c0backed Yes	1c	1,364$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	6c	1,328$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.05	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	11cpaid	-94.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes	3c	1,300$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa715…acfcbacked Yes	1c	1,277$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	71c	1,240$880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.2	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes	13c	1,230$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.9	156	25%39 W · 117 L	+17.9wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+79.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes	3c	1,214$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.34	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaad…55acbacked Yes	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87fc…ffd9backed Yes	6c	1,184$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes	25c	1,182$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes	13c	1,172$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.2	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+11.9wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the US strike Iran next?this page
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
Will the US strike Cuba nexNo won
Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
Will the US strike Syria next?No won
Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
Will the US strike another country first?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US strike Iran next?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event