TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdaad…55ac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Serie A, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$81.58
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31.45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+132.6%+$37.12
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$35.56
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+253.5%+$562.72
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$33
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$98.99
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.86
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$114
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$19
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$22
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+52.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.