Middle East · resolved market
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a40c58ffda1c02eec35f58107bd69bd30cb3d367f1755c0512bbde5abeb9d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $492,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $520,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 843 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 33c | 22,230$7,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,224.73 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 40c | 13,586$5,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,107.6 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 71c | 11,946$8,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,484.34 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 42c | 8,723$3,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,039.81 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc8…bd00backed Yes | 70c | 8,542$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 55c | 8,533$4,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,857.47 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 31c | 6,951$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,788.54 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 59c | 6,610$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 5,886$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.09 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 55c | 5,787$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,206.74 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 49c | 5,763$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728e…713bbacked Yes | 61c | 4,816$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 10c | 4,519$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 49c | 4,334$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.27 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 72c | 3,859$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,787.84 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 40c | 3,820$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.32 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 40c | 3,658$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.77 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 72c | 3,623$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.15 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed Yes | 68c | 3,600$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 38c | 3,540$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 41c | 3,517$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.55 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 44c | 3,448$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.21 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…7e28backed No | 44c | 3,328$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.67 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…0f94backed Yes | 63c | 3,181$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes | 60c | 2,939$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 2,922$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.43 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d70…2698backed No | 52c | 2,873$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 43c | 2,866$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.57 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes | 55c | 2,751$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 2,750$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.12 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 40c | 2,700$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.97 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 48c | 2,693$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.73 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 39c | 2,669$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.16 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…5db2backed No | 64c | 2,597$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 78c | 2,596$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.37 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 59c | 2,553$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 35c | 2,418$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.49 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 64c | 2,232$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.34 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 79c | 2,160$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.27 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 53c | 2,120$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.42 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…59c0backed No | 46c | 2,089$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked No | 39c | 2,079$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.03 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 43c | 2,063$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.94 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 42c | 2,000$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.2 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f5…5cfbbacked Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 56c | 1,950$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.04 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 45c | 1,940$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.28 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 46c | 1,911$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.93 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 32c | 1,861$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.96 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 34c | 1,828$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.98 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 50c | 1,800$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,798$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8f…20abbacked Yes | 40c | 1,796$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes | 56c | 1,783$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 40c | 1,776$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.69 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 60c | 1,702$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.05 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…4f9abacked Yes | 59c | 1,683$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 1,666$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Yes | 60c | 1,655$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 58c | 1,648$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.57 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,609$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.82 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,608$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.82 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed No | 64c | 1,600$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…f072backed Yes | 63c | 1,599$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 63c | 1,586$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed No | 46c | 1,559$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 59c | 1,533$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…22e5backed Yes | 54c | 1,509$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 45c | 1,467$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.54 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 67c | 1,462$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…07f6backed Yes | 27c | 1,424$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 68c | 1,416$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.24 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes | 58c | 1,398$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 40c | 1,366$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.87 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,361$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 69c | 1,349$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.02 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 41c | 1,348$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.43 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…7664backed No | 39c | 1,326$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,323$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 59c | 1,304$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.21 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 44c | 1,300$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.55 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…a20dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,250$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 56c | 1,242$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 40c | 1,200$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.15 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked No | 60c | 1,182$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.97 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 72c | 1,170$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.56 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…fd90backed No | 44c | 1,113$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,108$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 57c | 1,105$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.34 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 32c | 1,100$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked No | 55c | 1,090$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 30c | 1,072$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.41 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20e8…a4a1backed No | 47c | 1,067$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 1,064$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.55 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 77c | 1,054$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.47 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…aef5backed Yes | 50c | 1,023$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.29 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 55c | 1,020$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.22 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?this page
- US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.