Middle East · resolved market
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe051d1d70197f7e493c9c2421b8352f5c1be856c5ceea5014a461e8a7581b5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 18c | 4,112$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.81 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 15c | 3,827$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.47 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 3,806$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…42cdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,682$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,574$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 21c | 3,245$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.92 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.99 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a9f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…e457backed Yes | 8c | 2,313$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +669.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 19c | 2,305$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.24 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,203$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked Yes | 21c | 2,198$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.51 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,046$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.32 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…dc24backed Yes | 4c | 1,998$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…5948backed Yes | 4c | 1,933$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 18c | 1,790$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.32 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,436$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 10c | 1,280$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…09a8backed Yes | 19c | 1,222$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,221$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3401…b3cabacked Yes | 17c | 1,217$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 25c | 1,206$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,167$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 18c | 1,154$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.54 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 9c | 1,089$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,088$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 1,048$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…628abacked Yes | 20c | 1,046$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,033$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…e1c4backed Yes | 24c | 1,022$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 20c | 1,004$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0924backed Yes | 23c | 992.02$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ad…5e85backed Yes | 3c | 965.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6092…0343backed Yes | 11c | 953.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 16c | 900$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 5c | 881.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 19c | 877.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.46 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 12c | 861.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…5e5abacked Yes | 23c | 852.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…f624backed Yes | 7c | 846.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +369.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 7c | 845.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes | 9c | 843.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 20c | 843$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe100…2388backed Yes | 7c | 837.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 806.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 18c | 761.31$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 21c | 751.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 742.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 659.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 20c | 652.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 76c | 646.03$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…6452backed Yes | 22c | 621.42$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 18c | 595.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 575$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 19c | 524.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa2…100bbacked Yes | 11c | 517.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…a4b4backed Yes | 4c | 514.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5981backed Yes | 4c | 502.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…6f5bbacked Yes | 6c | 502.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…d2cfbacked Yes | 16c | 500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 79c | 475.14$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…8e69backed Yes | 21c | 466.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 8c | 449.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…c64bbacked Yes | 23c | 432.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…59a1backed Yes | 26c | 431.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 14c | 397$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 12c | 374.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…a32dbacked Yes | 19c | 372.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…96febacked Yes | 11c | 366.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 27c | 365.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 331.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…92a8backed Yes | 20c | 298.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 20c | 298.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 16c | 294.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 17c | 287.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed Yes | 27c | 278.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 23c | 269.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c285backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…df66backed Yes | 21c | 238.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0153…fbfcbacked Yes | 20c | 200.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…001dbacked Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…8598backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…034fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 21c | 180.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 13c | 147.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…aa43backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked No | 79c | 130.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +463%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1b…791dbacked Yes | 19c | 129.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?this page
- US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.