TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x223a…7664

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+51.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,036Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$13,768.38
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,325
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+98.1%+$333.63
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$179
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$370
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$336
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$53.25
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$33.29
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Hornets vs. Clippersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$187
76ers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+488.2%+$278.29
Knicks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$270
Spurs vs. Celticsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+100%+$197
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+203%+$324.85
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+51.5%+$257.58
76ers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$338
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$387
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$189
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+185.7%+$716.86
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$163
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+108.3%+$367.25
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 23 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,367Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$2,367.41
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+403.3%+$741.99
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,794Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$1,794
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$822Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$822.35
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$431Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$431
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$1,382.82
Chargers vs. Broncosbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Rams vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+376.2%+$902.86
Patriots vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$60
49ers vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$457
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+170.3%+$817.3
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+85.2%+$391.85
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$233.33
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$630
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+158.7%+$813.46
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+94.9%+$240.51
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.74
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.85
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$188.16
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+455.6%+$328.82
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.92
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.85
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+43.5%+$16.39
Will the US strike Mexico next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$18.12
Will the US strike Cuba nexbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$44.67
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.59
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$118.17
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+118.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+79%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid+96.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+212.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+525%+$519.75
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+132.6%+$304.88
Blues vs. Utahbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$175
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+38.9%+$21.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon reach $216 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$179.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.