Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c1bd306a8a4cedfb280e114e655c5092b3f37edccae05cd877d7f21a5774ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,995,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,441,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,995,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,589 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcab…e010backed Yes | 4c | 1,145,181$44,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,364.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 2c | 618,099$9,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,434.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…395bbacked Yes | 3c | 500,196$14,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,983.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf57…77c7backed Yes | 2c | 449,355$9,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,635.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 7c | 336,299$21,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,868.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 3c | 332,481$11,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,074.82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 330,300$10,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,771.59 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 317,879$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…d91cbacked Yes | 1c | 317,599$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…1862backed Yes | 5c | 303,153$14,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 2c | 295,133$7,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,005.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 244,165$15,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,253.25 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 230,591$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 228,763$14,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,869.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 4c | 193,929$7,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,127.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0d…ecf9backed Yes | 4c | 191,365$7,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,785 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed Yes | 2c | 167,882$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 148,856$4,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,443.35 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 2c | 132,520$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…a831backed Yes | 2c | 130,732$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…3fc8backed Yes | 15c | 122,709$17,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,918.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes | 3c | 121,728$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x704b…8f90backed Yes | 3c | 116,509$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 3c | 112,561$2,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,986.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 12c | 108,673$12,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,640.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a2…db9fbacked Yes | 0c | 103,074$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…63b4backed Yes | 4c | 102,074$4,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,220.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…3c88backed Yes | 4c | 100,000$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 2c | 99,923$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…7f61backed Yes | 6c | 98,026$5,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,538.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…89a4backed Yes | 1c | 95,824$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b1…f15dbacked Yes | 4c | 93,163$3,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…530cbacked Yes | 13c | 88,818$11,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,121.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 3c | 81,037$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.31 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…b164backed Yes | 2c | 80,752$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 0c | 75,875$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…324dbacked Yes | 5c | 73,975$3,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 8c | 72,842$5,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,968.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 4c | 69,943$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…a8fbbacked Yes | 2c | 69,139$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…b719backed Yes | 2c | 69,061$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6710…1220backed Yes | 7c | 65,375$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac3…5728backed Yes | 3c | 64,141$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2070…848abacked Yes | 8c | 63,701$5,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,119.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 12c | 62,493$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 11c | 62,227$6,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,978.27 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 4c | 61,714$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 10c | 61,249$6,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,151 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…a8b4backed Yes | 3c | 61,077$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…79cfbacked Yes | 0c | 60,529$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 3c | 60,440$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…1744backed Yes | 3c | 60,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 59,303$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.38 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…42dcbacked Yes | 3c | 56,147$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 10c | 55,573$5,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,566.29 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 4c | 54,164$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 15c | 50,268$7,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,667.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…72edbacked Yes | 13c | 47,494$6,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,398.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 3c | 46,182$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…2f0cbacked Yes | 12c | 45,024$5,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,325.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…b9e2backed Yes | 2c | 45,021$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 44,132$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.78 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…fcfabacked Yes | 8c | 43,990$3,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a47…bb31backed Yes | 3c | 42,464$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…567fbacked Yes | 1c | 42,128$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 3c | 41,677$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 3c | 40,751$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.53 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…5d03backed Yes | 3c | 40,558$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 3c | 40,454$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6634backed Yes | 12c | 40,347$4,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,682.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…05a0backed Yes | 3c | 39,776$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 4c | 38,543$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.12 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 37,955$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.43 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 7c | 37,771$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 2c | 37,424$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 4c | 37,119$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.03 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 6c | 36,765$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.27 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…23c9backed Yes | 3c | 35,714$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed Yes | 1c | 35,689$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 33,965$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.79 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9766…ed40backed Yes | 3c | 33,679$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…ee59backed Yes | 7c | 33,624$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 33,496$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.39 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 11c | 33,393$3,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,719.02 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe571…0265backed Yes | 3c | 33,334$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…0c9cbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de1…e0debacked Yes | 3c | 33,166$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 11c | 32,981$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,467.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 2c | 32,626$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…619fbacked Yes | 3c | 31,865$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…f2a6backed Yes | 3c | 31,573$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 10c | 30,837$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.67 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406a…1f9fbacked Yes | 3c | 30,745$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 30,527$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…54d1backed Yes | 1c | 30,414$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 13c | 30,273$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 6c | 30,063$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf9…a4a8backed Yes | 1c | 30,008$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…f492backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…f556backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.