Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec4c92f05c8eee61e99e1f53cc7ff54a0dde6e8cc80b25752a277408728387d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,172,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,172,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 28c | 61,682$16,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,985.58 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed Yes | 5c | 52,583$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.13 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 77c | 31,275$24,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,104.39 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f9…cc18backed Yes | 25c | 21,982$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d2bcbacked Yes | 27c | 21,720$5,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,864.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…d883backed Yes | 39c | 18,084$7,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,015.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0389backed Yes | 33c | 15,375$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 15c | 15,284$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.48 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…1280backed Yes | 28c | 12,425$3,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,458.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…9391backed No | 69c | 12,173$8,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,828.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +454.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…3254backed Yes | 34c | 11,978$4,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,036.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 68c | 11,949$8,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,867.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 11,234$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…96febacked Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…d319backed No | 73c | 9,700$7,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked No | 72c | 9,381$6,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 73c | 8,212$5,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.63 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a397backed No | 78c | 7,969$6,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +232.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 26c | 7,465$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.57 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 75c | 7,000$5,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…61f2backed Yes | 26c | 6,780$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 6,571$4,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…f8ddbacked No | 66c | 6,325$4,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 61c | 5,841$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.75 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 33c | 5,681$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 71c | 5,382$3,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 71c | 5,185$3,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.56 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,143$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed No | 71c | 5,102$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.02 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked No | 61c | 5,061$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…ee83backed Yes | 31c | 4,913$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 75c | 4,880$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…bbe1backed No | 70c | 4,816$3,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,786$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40e…a94dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,632$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 74c | 4,601$3,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 4,597$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,176$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…d9a6backed Yes | 23c | 4,085$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 3,880$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed No | 73c | 3,738$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 71c | 3,630$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.09 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 74c | 3,564$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.8 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 16c | 3,563$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 66c | 3,464$2,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.16 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 22c | 3,333$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed No | 77c | 3,228$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 26c | 3,195$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.8 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked No | 73c | 3,167$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…9d91backed No | 77c | 3,144$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50c…f6bcbacked No | 77c | 3,060$2,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…d43fbacked No | 68c | 3,055$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…610fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…226cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,991$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.88 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4f…8bbabacked Yes | 28c | 2,948$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…db55backed No | 72c | 2,946$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 23c | 2,944$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c5babacked No | 76c | 2,932$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 2,904$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 77c | 2,874$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.93 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…dbcabacked No | 72c | 2,839$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Yes | 35c | 2,834$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,833$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.53 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…418ebacked No | 64c | 2,812$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…fbc9backed No | 72c | 2,800$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 75c | 2,678$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.08 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…d1a0backed Yes | 27c | 2,659$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…9c34backed Yes | 22c | 2,659$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb578…f5bfbacked No | 72c | 2,600$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…cc23backed No | 73c | 2,567$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…fe6ebacked No | 73c | 2,548$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaf…0a29backed Yes | 28c | 2,543$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…555ebacked No | 78c | 2,483$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…99bfbacked Yes | 27c | 2,480$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe492…f21bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,427$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…7681backed No | 75c | 2,223$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,165$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.45 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 65c | 2,143$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…1f16backed No | 76c | 2,118$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…97afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…ec99backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 27c | 2,000$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.2 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…9362backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…c969backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04bb…5237backed No | 72c | 1,939$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4d…394fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,931$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…c29bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,860$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed Yes | 26c | 1,846$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked No | 73c | 1,840$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.48 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…7487backed No | 69c | 1,836$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…60eebacked Yes | 27c | 1,822$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfd…efe8backed No | 73c | 1,804$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…4ae3backed Yes | 27c | 1,788$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 20c | 1,776$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.