Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e24e0c77d460058cc5788027ff6229e6471610c49db904b74640bfcfb7141be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $758,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $758,271 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,437$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 9c | 29,630$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.71 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes | 1c | 27,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…776dbacked Yes | 2c | 24,500$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9c…12ddbacked Yes | 6c | 19,397$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…3254backed Yes | 11c | 11,232$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…0187backed Yes | 2c | 10,693$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…44f2backed Yes | 2c | 10,693$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…a827backed Yes | 2c | 10,680$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…b1dbbacked Yes | 2c | 10,680$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,490$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 9,200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 8,408$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…9d1abacked Yes | 2c | 7,695$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfd…472cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,695$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…9e7cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…6469backed Yes | 1c | 7,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…b72bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,640$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c6…c539backed Yes | 1c | 7,640$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546f…5b83backed Yes | 1c | 7,625$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…594dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,625$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…d883backed Yes | 34c | 5,457$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…96febacked Yes | 11c | 5,375$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…bc56backed Yes | 0c | 5,223$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x291f…bc98backed Yes | 2c | 5,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…e8c6backed Yes | 2c | 5,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…9b07backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a4…7bd5backed Yes | 2c | 4,910$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed82…0954backed Yes | 1c | 4,467$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3934…8352backed Yes | 1c | 4,333$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,974$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 8c | 3,767$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…ee83backed Yes | 15c | 3,355$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 3,285$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7b…9715backed Yes | 3c | 2,910$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Yes | 14c | 2,902$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,818$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…8c72backed Yes | 7c | 2,627$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,426$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,231$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,052$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…759dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,921$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked Yes | 14c | 1,800$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,788$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 1cpaid | +1,462.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…2b9abacked Yes | 6c | 1,724$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,666$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,659$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,653$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…27e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,487$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…dbe1backed Yes | 11c | 1,464$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,449$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…20ecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 1c | 1,292$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…8dc5backed Yes | 2c | 1,249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…b17bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7924backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…c840backed Yes | 10c | 1,161$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…ed17backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…de4cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac66…ab8bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…37f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…a517backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…24a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 1c | 983.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…0fa8backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e28…eebbbacked Yes | 14c | 715.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked Yes | 2c | 666.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…57c3backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc584…65c7backed Yes | 8c | 568$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 8c | 559.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…787ebacked Yes | 12c | 544.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…816fbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…3717backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83e…7e3fbacked Yes | 10c | 426.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…4637backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed9…5e6bbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1159…6bbcbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…0125backed Yes | 9c | 261$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…044dbacked Yes | 14c | 223.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…bae3backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…ca2abacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…72abbacked Yes | 11c | 144$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…cab0backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 66c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…ba19backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881d…51a4backed Yes | 12c | 98.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.