Token Launches · resolved market
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x446e89712a89e8dfa0419c2db006147a9be28f39a4cf0c67f52ae998b3c5e1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,760 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 13c | 25,415$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.54 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 21c | 16,332$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.66 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,401$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.97 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,820$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed Yes | 24c | 3,054$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 79c | 3,051$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.01 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 17c | 2,340$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 17c | 2,292$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.84 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…bf0cbacked No | 75c | 2,108$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 1c | 1,817$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 79c | 1,450$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 75c | 1,426$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.52 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 74c | 1,388$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.87 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,356$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 77c | 1,350$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.98 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes | 27c | 1,306$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.38 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…851ebacked No | 79c | 1,286$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,256$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c43…2914backed Yes | 7c | 1,163$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…44afbacked No | 70c | 988.26$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 6c | 899.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked No | 77c | 871.75$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 24c | 849.79$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 77c | 815$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.3 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 76c | 813.25$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.05 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…1272backed No | 76c | 809.79$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…b7b3backed Yes | 6c | 800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Yes | 30c | 798.44$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…6063backed Yes | 1c | 775.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…0dc1backed No | 78c | 672$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…93cabacked Yes | 30c | 663.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 16c | 652.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…6b21backed No | 74c | 627.14$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 563.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9d00backed Yes | 34c | 532.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 500$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 496.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 24c | 487.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 404.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Yes | 27c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 25c | 393.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed Yes | 30c | 329.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked No | 76c | 326.52$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked No | 74c | 315.74$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f3…6517backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b2…7f60backed No | 70c | 285.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 25c | 267.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0217…6b41backed No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…6dfcbacked No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…88b9backed Yes | 29c | 171.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…0ec7backed Yes | 15c | 151.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…be8abacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 8c | 148.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 71c | 137$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 134.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…53fabacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c2…a2abbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…5a2dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…8a95backed No | 69c | 99.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 96.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…1f79backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…2e82backed No | 74c | 76.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes | 22c | 76.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +374.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…840ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…a644backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…b60abacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 28c | 57.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 20c | 54.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…776cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…ca7fbacked No | 76c | 49.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 47.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…4fa8backed No | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589e…e258backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6993backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…c920backed No | 73c | 24.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…850cbacked No | 76c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…d5e2backed No | 76c | 22.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…9578backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…1b6bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc796…e017backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f5…99c8backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…5a31backed No | 75c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…99aebacked No | 75c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?this page
- Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch?No won
- Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.