TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1f01…c213

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Weather, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 62 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.26per pick21cpaid+367%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.09
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+198.6%+$27.81
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.57
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.45
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+5,900%+$590
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+292.8%+$317.44
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+221.4%+$247.64
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+247.3%+$1,351.43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+139.5%+$227.69
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+102.4%+$58.45
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+37%+$183.9
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.61
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)backed Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$93.85
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$97.6
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$119.19
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$907Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$292.52
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+154%+$730.62
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$895Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+73.7%+$659.69
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$275
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+138.1%+$58
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$117.66
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$479.83
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$248.61
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$32.5
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+60.4%+$256
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+237.8%+$80.73
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$54.6
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+102.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffsbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$44.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$310.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.