Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17e6c9d7822883a0cc3e7dc8c6fd3ec24d2a76dbec687110535db7de84baaaf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,270 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e7…9641backed Yes | 3c | 31,500$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 0c | 3,035$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,602$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 1,476$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 8c | 1,339$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,053$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 694.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…c213backed No | 73c | 680.79$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +367%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 3c | 629.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dd…b444backed Yes | 9c | 416.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 36c | 335.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 23c | 329.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 11c | 299.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 215.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 58c | 182.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 181.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…ac39backed Yes | 9c | 179.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 174.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 60c | 158.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 9c | 131.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 124.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddf…d354backed Yes | 54c | 80.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 54c | 58.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…8894backed Yes | 44c | 41.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…698bbacked No | 71c | 31.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 71c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 46c | 27.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.