TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05e7…9641

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
25
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+85.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.18
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.63
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$95.7
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$155
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$787.5
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31,510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+42.8%+$13,488.93
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$5,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,070
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18,734Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$45,866
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$594Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+2,677.8%+$15,906
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,920Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,920
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$525
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$224.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$390
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$58.8
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$7,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$7,080
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$3,760Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+112.8%+$4,240
All 21 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,630Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+30.7%+$2,340.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$17.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Richard Grenell visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.