Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e867da3233133ad7237f10480db4766085b073fbe9fc8292fc105a3aa8951a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 0c | 11,448$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 0c | 8,535$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e7…9641backed No | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,240 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed No | 34c | 4,700$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,102 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 66c | 4,700$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,343$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.13 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 74c | 535.63$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…274cbacked Yes | 54c | 279.93$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…6f8cbacked Yes | 63c | 227$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a91…8c80backed Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 67c | 157.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 139.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 39c | 138.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 109.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 46c | 103$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 41c | 94.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 21c | 88.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 83.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 80.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 75.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 65.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 30c | 65.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 65c | 59.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 66c | 58.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 21c | 57.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed No | 59c | 57.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 57.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…2998backed Yes | 75c | 55.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 51.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7bcbbacked Yes | 52c | 47.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 55c | 46.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 45c | 39.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 38.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 40c | 37.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 37c | 35.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 60c | 33.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 48c | 33.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…12ebbacked No | 66c | 31.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…09f3backed Yes | 35c | 29.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…1611backed No | 55c | 29.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 27.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 39c | 26.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…a2a1backed No | 56c | 26.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…1cd7backed Yes | 64c | 23.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 45c | 23.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 53c | 20.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 57c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 61c | 19.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 69c | 18.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 60c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.