Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6890c1365af17f5f1b0d0256c7a424c8e1f388862b232907d30dfd5aa0a3435c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 2,453$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.37 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,863$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.51 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked No | 39c | 1,750$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.76 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 44c | 1,694$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.8 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 52c | 1,129$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.3 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 28c | 515.07$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…274cbacked No | 72c | 463.65$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…6f8cbacked No | 64c | 350.58$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 331.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 16c | 324$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.54 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 48c | 182.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 33c | 152.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed No | 68c | 138.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 57c | 131.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 125.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 118.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 114.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 68c | 112$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…f9babacked Yes | 48c | 93.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 77c | 91.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 74c | 89.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 29c | 88.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 73.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 69.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 63.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 48c | 55.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 48c | 54.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 75c | 52.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 49.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 67c | 48.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 28c | 47.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 47.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 51c | 42.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 47c | 42.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4a6fbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 69c | 37.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 38c | 35.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 61c | 27.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1381…7490backed Yes | 48c | 23.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 20.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 18.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.