Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca1cf2b2a4e41c07044bec8ba3eb234bc524453dc569e246face7395e2305d60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e7…9641backed No | 4c | 16,500$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,906 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 2c | 1,309$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…088fbacked Yes | 13c | 540.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 6c | 520.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.81 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 9c | 325.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 8c | 310$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.59 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 60c | 273.87$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 270.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 251.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.89 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…b10bbacked Yes | 5c | 232.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 41c | 165.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 34c | 159$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 125.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 104.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…d18dbacked Yes | 12c | 97.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 16c | 93.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…de2cbacked No | 13c | 83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 48c | 72.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 58.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 48c | 31.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.