Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f4dc9c9d8d9b7fabd1dbdd0ac3b88ad4958ed9e9e0b4d06b3ae8e64be52b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed Yes | 74c | 42,000$31,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,920 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…af86backed No | 26c | 41,506$10,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,830.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…22e4backed No | 34c | 2,958$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…95c3backed No | 34c | 2,958$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 2c | 1,940$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc844…3773backed Yes | 55c | 1,890$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…ee9cbacked No | 45c | 1,843$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…f756backed Yes | 55c | 1,823$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…88aebacked No | 45c | 1,794$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…6942backed Yes | 58c | 1,752$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…3486backed No | 42c | 1,709$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…5f69backed Yes | 66c | 1,520$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…9f43backed Yes | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb74…4b7fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…eef8backed Yes | 66c | 1,510$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 733.68$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 47c | 530.29$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 60c | 294.85$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e7…9641backed Yes | 67c | 290$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked No | 33c | 283.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed No | 49c | 200.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 45c | 199.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 51c | 173.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 65c | 157.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 51c | 155.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 33c | 149.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 55c | 140.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 76c | 139.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 137.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 52c | 127.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 120.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 76c | 116.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 114$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 45c | 109.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…ee95backed No | 47c | 106.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 34c | 100.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 32c | 99.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 59c | 95.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 56c | 89.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked No | 44c | 88.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…90aebacked No | 48c | 88.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 84.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…1b1fbacked No | 14c | 82.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 72.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 68c | 68.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 65c | 60.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 44c | 60.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 54c | 59.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 53c | 56.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 27c | 55.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 58c | 52.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…8739backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…266abacked No | 41c | 47.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 42c | 46.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 57c | 40.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 49c | 39.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 66c | 39.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 60c | 38.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 49c | 37.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…bffbbacked No | 40c | 36.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ccddbacked No | 45c | 35.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 35.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 48c | 35.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…2e65backed No | 58c | 35.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 68c | 35.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 47c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 56c | 28.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…9ea8backed Yes | 58c | 27.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 54c | 25.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…abf6backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 42c | 24.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked Yes | 60c | 23.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 66c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…0d02backed Yes | 63c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 77c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 52c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…9d57backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…910bbacked Yes | 71c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf72f…3b4dbacked Yes | 58c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 17.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 76c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.