Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d3d8825064602e4d79258c6c8d256e23fb46d66b01ca85ee2298c741462cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,696$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 7c | 1,003$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 2c | 907.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 211.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 7c | 169.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 6c | 161.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 145.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 143.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 12c | 140.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 130.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 27c | 123.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 112.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…64b7backed Yes | 24c | 108.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed No | 77c | 106.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 29c | 104.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 22c | 90.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 90.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 88.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 86.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 79.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…aa5fbacked Yes | 19c | 57.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 24c | 55.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 53.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 26c | 44.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 40.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…d948backed Yes | 29c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 73c | 36.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 74c | 24.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ccddbacked No | 75c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 77c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 78c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.