Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aaf7d59b6a0e3198a679b2c9d5c6ca7cdc05ed1d74dbe34dc87847a8ee00a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e7…9641backed No | 1c | 21,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 14,818$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…4af2backed No | 0c | 13,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed No | 0c | 12,800$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…f211backed No | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 7,585$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 1c | 7,585$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b00…816cbacked No | 1c | 2,223$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 10c | 1,813$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.19 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 870.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 765.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 17c | 647.11$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.33 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 472.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.28 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 18c | 467.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 451.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 9c | 450.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.04 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 40c | 427.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 19c | 409.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.89 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 345.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 331.42$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed No | 80c | 299.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.92 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 20c | 272.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 78c | 264.39$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 75c | 260.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 258.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 257.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 14c | 243.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.68 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 243.71$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 21c | 242.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 11c | 233.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed No | 61c | 230$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 21c | 227.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.06 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 222.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 222.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 220.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 207.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 202.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…3ffdbacked Yes | 10c | 175$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +419.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 14c | 159.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 20c | 150.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 141.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 11c | 139.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.24 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 30c | 136.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…e247backed Yes | 12c | 133.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 132.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 125.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 113.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 80c | 108.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 24c | 104.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 95.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 93.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 22c | 90.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 83.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 17c | 82.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 30c | 81.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…aa26backed Yes | 14c | 81.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 41c | 70.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 23c | 67.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 59c | 67.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd9…c2e2backed Yes | 19c | 65.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 36c | 64.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 61.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 21c | 56.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 25c | 56.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked No | 74c | 56.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2152…c47ebacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 79c | 29.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 58c | 28.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…2be6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…728abacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.