TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,695 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05e7…9641backed No1c21,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+85.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No1c14,818$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13c…4af2backed No0c13,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-63.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb94…6757backed No0c12,800$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…f211backed No0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No1c7,585$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.041,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No1c7,585$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b00…816cbacked No1c2,223$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No10c1,813$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1976924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No9c870.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c765.87$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.1917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes17c647.11$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.3324569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c472.92$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.281,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes18c467.77$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.541225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c451.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.552,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes9c450.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.0457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes40c427.16$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.9926265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes19c409.13$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.894148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c345.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c331.42$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa6…6cb8backed No80c299.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.991936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+61.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c299.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.921,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes20c272.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.32020%4 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes78c264.39$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No75c260.08$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes26c258.86$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.514,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c257.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes14c243.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.6826828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No62c243.71$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.261,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes21c242.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1852935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes11c233.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3919123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014f…ea08backed No61c230$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.32528%7 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes21c227.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0611930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes19c222.57$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.284415.9%7 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No6c222.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3932818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes14c220.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.241,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes13c207.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.368,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes34c202.48$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a2…3ffdbacked Yes10c175$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+419.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes12c167$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.051,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes14c159.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4935432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505e…1c76backed Yes20c150.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.593839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes19c150$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c141.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa22…2303backed Yes11c139.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.246656.1%37 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes30c136.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7629459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22aa…e247backed Yes12c133.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.911520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes10c132.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.561,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes16c130$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.29434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c125.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c125$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes14c113.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.952,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No80c108.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.192544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes24c104.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9610537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes10c101$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5117338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes14c99.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3117433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes18c99.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9926827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c95.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.922,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes13c93.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.161,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes22c90.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes36c83.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.46033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No14c83.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2539810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffc…ce04backed Yes17c82.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.093810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No30c81.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.547347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c6…aa26backed Yes14c81.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+110.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes23c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4912223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes20c79.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8919617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No41c70.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8718052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes23c67.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.74332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No59c67.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6335843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8823231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd9…c2e2backed Yes19c65.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.98650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+224.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes36c64.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3516944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes17c61.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.214359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4122…6c07backed Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.83554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes19c58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9815923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3744…5b16backed Yes21c56.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.013713.5%5 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes25c56.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.662572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc70…e75dbacked No74c56.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4054232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3811619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes29c44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8218035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.432044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.69048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2152…c47ebacked No40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No79c29.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.191963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No58c28.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7157232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c28.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes39c27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.466729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3a8…ec7dbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84fc…2be6backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x602d…728abacked No78c12.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.