Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6c6c5c5d0ad74751862849aef81b4c4d50e382e7e663b2fd2f6405475de413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,320 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 0c | 15,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 8,386$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,569$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 1c | 1,666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,659$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,385$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 2c | 1,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 927.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 859.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 3c | 657.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 58c | 613.14$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.03 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 592.9$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 582.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 60c | 406.52$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 52c | 399.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 321.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 319.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 306.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 291.66$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 262.16$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 42c | 238.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 232.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 65c | 208.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 190.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 17c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 188.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 43c | 185.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 22c | 183.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 64c | 179.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 167$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0350…2318backed No | 39c | 162$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 66c | 148.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 67c | 148.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 146.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 40c | 145.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 13c | 127.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 126$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 48c | 124.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 33c | 123.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 40c | 113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 110.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 26c | 107.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 62c | 107.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 102.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed No | 39c | 98.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 14c | 93.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 44c | 91.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 90.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 89.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 37c | 89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 33c | 87.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 35c | 85.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed No | 58c | 85.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 58c | 85.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 84.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes | 40c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 83.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 13c | 82.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 81.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…99a1backed Yes | 19c | 79.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 77.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 64c | 76.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 38c | 75.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 80c | 71.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 48c | 62.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 62.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…b231backed Yes | 61c | 59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 58.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 58.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 30c | 57.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…9b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 53.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 39c | 52.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 51.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…0519backed Yes | 42c | 51.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 43c | 49.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 48.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 66c | 47.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 53c | 46.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbba0…4e33backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…0a86backed Yes | 59c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 65c | 40.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.