TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,240 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb289…e614backed Yes30c3,110$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf166…eef8backed No70c1,560$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd01…3792backed No70c1,550$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c536.23$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.314,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No76c468.05$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2524569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c413.72$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.931,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes23c399.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.992020%4 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes25c399.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+61.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No77c331.88$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c299.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes5c284.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes9c275.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7376924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c273.3$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes28c270.42$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.461225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c269.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c254.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.962,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes31c240.21$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fc…2be6backed Yes9c219.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No78c217.89$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.894148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c203.52$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c193.68$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.023,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes29c167$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.121,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes11c160.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9255919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c147.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1356627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes25c144.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No71c134.9$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.731,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No70c127.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.399434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c126$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c123.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3aa…6977backed Yes29c118$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No65c117.17$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0341070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa2…8351backed Yes23c115$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes27c113.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.694415.9%7 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c109$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.651,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes30c108.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2725536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c104.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c101.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes29c100.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6626827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611025.5%28 W · 82 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014f…ea08backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232528%7 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1735432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes26c99.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2634748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes32c98.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.821333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes23c94.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c49…8740backed Yes16c78.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes30c78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No66c76.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9514071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6db…810ebacked No67c74.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.711040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a2…3ffdbacked Yes18c71.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+419.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes29c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7514736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ced…e412backed Yes22c64.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.281330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes24c62.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes33c60.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf083…3428backed Yes34c59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.24126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes35c57.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf1b…e88cbacked Yes25c57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes25c54.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5334633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes30c53.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c50.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.228,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes35c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes21c49.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.517237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c49.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe9cc…102abacked Yes29c43.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No67c43.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2711872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed No75c41.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.496642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…dcebbacked Yes37c40.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b5…1225backed No74c40.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No71c39.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4529459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0856…560dbacked No77c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22aa…e247backed Yes40c38.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.241520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6682…70f8backed No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5a…16d5backed No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…3d55backed No77c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No75c33.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.521,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes31c33.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2910352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c31.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No65c29.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2924149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes37c29.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8133726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2706…437dbacked No71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No68c27.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.621,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d99…99a2backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No73c21.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.897676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…02b7backed No71c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No75c17.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5427771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No67c17.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe47…3af4backed No77c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No75c13.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3859440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.