Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e1a5a1d49cfd87220abba117d6c3cb03ed88a101727dd4f4ad0864e41036d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,864 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e7…9641backed Yes | 12c | 16,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 5c | 1,267$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 769.08$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 575.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 541.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 534.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 413.88$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 412.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 403.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 382.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 332.18$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 297.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 262.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 222.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 222.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 20c | 218.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 21c | 199.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 21c | 187.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 19c | 183.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes | 12c | 154.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 151.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 12c | 136.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…6bffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…a192backed Yes | 14c | 112.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 94.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108b…29e7backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 83.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 82.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 21c | 76.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 74.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 21c | 72.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 36c | 70.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc6…109fbacked Yes | 30c | 65.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 19c | 58.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 56.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…6a96backed Yes | 20c | 50.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…a5b1backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8b…73fbbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…9bd1backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 76c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 17.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or higher on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.