Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66668e16d3bd426663dc9f0d6dd7437af760853fe3ec659076d6a73564888a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c9…f211backed Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked No | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 9c | 2,231$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.91 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 17c | 1,304$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.46 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed No | 78c | 569.38$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 544.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 27c | 473.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.46 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 459.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.39 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 454.1$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 453.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 80c | 438.12$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.38 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 3c | 422.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 391.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.39 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 16c | 349.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.18 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 46c | 341.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.87 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 18c | 293.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 70c | 253.57$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed No | 77c | 230.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 44c | 217.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.13 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 21c | 190.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No | 79c | 189.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 178.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 140.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 135.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 133.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 11c | 132.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 29c | 127.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 126.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 9c | 126.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 22c | 121.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 110.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…d3c1backed Yes | 43c | 108.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…d259backed No | 74c | 99.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 97.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 96.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 28c | 90.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 34c | 86.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…2621backed Yes | 46c | 79.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 77.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 23c | 75.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 16c | 73.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…ccbbbacked No | 69c | 73.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 72.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 35c | 72.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7c…c03ebacked No | 71c | 71.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 29c | 69.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…9f5ebacked Yes | 54c | 69.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 19c | 68.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 19c | 67.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 57c | 64.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 43c | 63.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…bb48backed Yes | 38c | 55.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 38c | 51.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 51.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 49c | 50.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 57c | 48.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 47.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 59c | 44.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 43.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 42.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 42.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 35c | 38.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 67c | 32.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed Yes | 69c | 22.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 71c | 22.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 48c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 63c | 21.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 17.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…f763backed Yes | 73c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 74c | 14.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or higher on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.