TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,958 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42c9…f211backed Yes41c5,000$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.441118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4c…fa5fbacked No59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9501520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No9c2,231$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.911,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed Yes17c1,304$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.464427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e9…e288backed No78c569.38$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No8c544.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8659742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes27c473.74$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.4616529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes3c459.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.391,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No78c454.1$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.8991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c453.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked No80c438.12$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.388250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b8…8665backed No3c422.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c391.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.391,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes16c349.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.1860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes46c341.61$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.097638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes16c300$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8715626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd420…98e0backed Yes18c293.27$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.17137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No70c253.57$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.631,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x333d…aba8backed No77c230.74$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.261464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+58.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…cdf7backed No44c217.28$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.392045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.1346733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a15…dfb4backed No21c190.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No79c189.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.054148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c178.84$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c140.87$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No36c135.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.387,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No36c133.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.531,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x324f…15b1backed Yes11c132.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.14022.5%9 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes29c127.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9811128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No70c126.23$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes9c126.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.463023.3%7 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes22c121.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9533726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c110.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.313,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db8…d3c1backed Yes43c108.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6417433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca5…d259backed No74c99.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes23c99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.916,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c97.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.852,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No78c96.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7541070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357f…b6c5backed Yes28c90.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.883135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes34c86.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.228640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe1e…2621backed Yes46c79.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+150.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes52c77.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.361,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes23c75.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1621333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes16c73.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0415911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2a5…ccbbbacked No69c73.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes14c72.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4134219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes35c72.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0716355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7c…c03ebacked No71c71.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes22c70$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.777233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef81…6d75backed Yes29c69.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.521758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bec…9f5ebacked Yes54c69.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes19c68.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.183517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed Yes19c67.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.487939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes31c65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0414736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9c7…c6a2backed No57c64.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.041560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes43c63.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.48740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c95…bb48backed Yes38c55.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.441136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487d…6813backed Yes38c51.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.246142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No63c51.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.581,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes49c50.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.815527.3%15 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes57c48.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No80c47.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.773,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No59c44.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4410060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes28c43.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4855919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No74c42.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.775974.6%44 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c42.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.594,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes35c38.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No72c36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9234651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes67c32.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.96376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1823231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes67c29.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514f…2be0backed No74c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.985151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Yes62c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.121936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07dd…3d55backed Yes69c22.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No71c22.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7611652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes48c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.543452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No63c21.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7629558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No57c21.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.441,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No59c17.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0494…631fbacked No59c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.033060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5986…f763backed Yes73c15.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked No74c14.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.867764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.