Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e6d01893def02b554e8317c2d395c6bfeae1d6461d30109e951630c01a33c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 4c | 1,273$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 6c | 738.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 723.78$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 645.42$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 11c | 560.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 57c | 517.71$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 55c | 502.18$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.55 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 462.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 9c | 380$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…8c38backed No | 79c | 335.58$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 303.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 296.27$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 42c | 281.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 220.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 201.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 33c | 193.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 62c | 180$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 59c | 166.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 162.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 12c | 162.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 46c | 162.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 155.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 153.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 130.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 21c | 120.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 118.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 51c | 104.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 63c | 104$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 19c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 22c | 90.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…bb48backed Yes | 30c | 81.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 76.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc6…109fbacked Yes | 37c | 73.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…b6bebacked Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 28c | 72.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 20c | 70.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 25c | 69.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 61c | 65.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 20c | 64.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 34c | 63.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 59.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 58.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 57.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 45.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 68c | 43.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 26c | 42.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 34.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 30.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 44c | 29.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 77c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 70c | 24.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 72c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or higher on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.