Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6a6b0841cc9f59f1f19b5b90ba8b4f9395e52963aaca6712510158b149c5c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e7…9641backed No | 59c | 12,000$7,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,080 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes | 41c | 12,000$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,080 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 70c | 400.22$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 41c | 351$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…4906backed Yes | 61c | 300.6$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…5bb3backed No | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed Yes | 74c | 236.06$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 226.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 173.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 25c | 138.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 18c | 133.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 10c | 129.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 128.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 116.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6ef3backed No | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 90.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 45c | 87.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 70c | 86.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 36c | 84.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 83.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 67.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 20c | 65.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 38c | 64.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 25c | 52.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 56c | 50.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 48c | 46.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed No | 59c | 45.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 41.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 35.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 76c | 34.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 59c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…91dbbacked Yes | 80c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.