TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,012 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05e7…9641backed Yes29c64,600$18,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,8662128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+85.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x261f…2fa4backed No71c64,600$45,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,8661428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+62.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d7…a061backed No0c15,986$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes27c810.03$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.371,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes40c758.17$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.374,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes28c427.13$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.084,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No72c424.41$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6216355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c406.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xa4fd…0095backed Yes55c365.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No74c347.85$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.55356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes32c338.33$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0719426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5474…a452backed No64c332.2$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes26c299.97$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.981,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c277.28$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c256$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes51c250.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2211533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No30c217.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4169520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c212.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No24c203.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.858349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c199.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.637,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No13c167.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3934617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x393d…6b95backed No74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c133.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No59c132.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No78c129.3$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6411878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No75c125.55$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c123$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.731,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes34c120.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8421440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes70c119$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4813058.5%76 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes62c108.77$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e8b7backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c99.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f0…dcb8backed Yes43c99.63$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.63450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes27c91.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes43c89.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c88.78$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.925,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No28c81.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.281,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No71c77.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.713647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No71c72.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.141,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No66c71.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.077638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes26c71.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7421235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes63c71.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No43c70.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2518761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb3…f497backed No73c69.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.061241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c68.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No48c61.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.611,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes27c61.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No65c61.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1414071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c57.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes23c56.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2281234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No25c52.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.921931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes28c52.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9724414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes33c51.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.512,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes29c50.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.787229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d3…3db7backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.536123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No51c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.487767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed No67c49.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.491936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes71c47.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7524932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked No75c46.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.763357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes45c45.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2317144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f3…769bbacked No72c44.13$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.772661.5%16 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No62c43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.698048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked No71c42.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No71c41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1154143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…c5c7backed Yes31c39.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No63c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.571,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No50c38.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6113531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0686…9020backed Yes80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0416…616cbacked Yes41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.595971.2%42 W · 17 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No52c34.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7a…e902backed Yes37c33.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes66c32.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No77c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6432760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.754346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cee…507abacked Yes80c31.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.234465.9%29 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa7c…9e02backed Yes42c31.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d6…9523backed Yes49c30.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2125…87f9backed Yes79c30.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.744553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.654966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180e…7f5abacked No68c29.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-53.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No35c29.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.152,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No62c28.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.725058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No71c28.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2518351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No71c28.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes51c28.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8318164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c27.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.514,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd9…5b04backed No72c27.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981844.4%8 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.26per pick70cpaid-36.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.