TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,213 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8e0…b43bbacked Yes29c2,714$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e70…bbe0backed Yes29c2,710$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6641…2e18backed No71c1,366$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaef…ecb4backed No71c1,360$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d6…4d91backed No71c1,350$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe841…2856backed No71c1,348$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes16c415.35$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.551216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No68c369.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.545356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes23c338$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7419426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c329.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No69c294.76$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2966144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes46c278.91$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No68c271.42$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No70c268.94$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.154245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes8c259.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3924932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c255.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes35c207.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c202.38$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes45c200.02$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3911533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.756950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.654,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No69c190.69$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.655375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c190.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes27c189.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4969520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No78c181.34$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes28c170.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c167.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.551,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No74c166$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e8b7backed Yes20c151.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.875117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9315626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c149.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed Yes30c132$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No58c126.22$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4132157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c125$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.953,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes24c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes25c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes34c115$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.557727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c113.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c112.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.263,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed No67c109.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.99935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes35c105.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.421440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.516336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed No69c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.991,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb3…f497backed No72c99.83$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.931241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes23c98.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.234618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes49c95.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…bac8backed Yes29c90.36$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes31c88.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.533726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb4…9fb7backed No69c87.36$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.08650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes32c84.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7631442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c84.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.327,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes36c83.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed No76c82.95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes24c82.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes34c80.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1681029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.826236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes20c74.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes23c73.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3624414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No77c73.06$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes49c69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7213058.5%76 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes21c68.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5411425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No55c66.91$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3113748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c64.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c63.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No66c61.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.031,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes31c60.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9127463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No80c60.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0941070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.422728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ba…3954backed Yes30c59.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes31c57.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No61c56.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.191,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No66c55.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.661560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+55.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes21c52.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes33c51.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0416…616cbacked Yes40c50.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205971.2%42 W · 17 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9bc…a9c9backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.799133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.181,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes38c49.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7817144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…6a43backed Yes30c49.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155538.2%21 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked No72c48.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.73357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes31c47.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c84…88f3backed Yes31c47.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes30c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.659142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes34c44.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1549941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes31c44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.498239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No77c42.54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.783647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c41.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.785,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes49c41.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3713554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb5…3d1ebacked No68c41.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.211127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d6…5b98backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.