Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedcebe4326673fd04bcf06fbf043eb03f78de45eea2dbc9f33313c3c3941c4c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,213 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e0…b43bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,714$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…bbe0backed Yes | 29c | 2,710$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…2e18backed No | 71c | 1,366$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…ecb4backed No | 71c | 1,360$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…4d91backed No | 71c | 1,350$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…2856backed No | 71c | 1,348$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 16c | 415.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 68c | 369.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 23c | 338$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 329.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 69c | 294.76$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 46c | 278.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 271.42$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 70c | 268.94$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 8c | 259.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 255.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 207.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 202.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 45c | 200.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 69c | 190.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 190.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 27c | 189.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 181.34$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…98f1backed Yes | 28c | 170.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 167.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 74c | 166$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 20c | 151.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 30c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 58c | 126.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 113.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 112.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed No | 67c | 109.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 35c | 105.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 69c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed No | 72c | 99.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 23c | 98.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 49c | 95.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…bac8backed Yes | 29c | 90.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 31c | 88.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…9fb7backed No | 69c | 87.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 32c | 84.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 84.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 36c | 83.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 76c | 82.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 24c | 82.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 80.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 23c | 73.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 73.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 68.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 55c | 66.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 64.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 63.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 61.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 31c | 60.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 60.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ba…3954backed Yes | 30c | 59.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 31c | 57.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 61c | 56.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 66c | 55.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 21c | 52.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…a9c9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 38c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 30c | 49.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 72c | 48.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 31c | 47.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 31c | 47.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 34c | 44.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 31c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 77c | 42.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 41.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 49c | 41.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…3d1ebacked No | 68c | 41.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d6…5b98backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 37°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 56°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.