Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ca134136541e5b4e6105c6d37d7cfc3fcc680ba15ac1d60e8f10dba867e19b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,702 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e7…9641backed Yes | 26c | 19,500$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,070 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 74c | 19,500$14,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,070 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 28c | 14,500$4,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,060 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed No | 72c | 14,500$10,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,059.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…d047backed Yes | 25c | 2,556$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf3…61d1backed No | 75c | 1,306$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…88f1backed No | 75c | 1,250$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 40c | 1,065$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.35 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 26c | 389.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 349.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 34c | 308.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 10c | 300.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 39c | 278.04$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 24c | 252.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…dcb8backed Yes | 50c | 250.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 65c | 212.41$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 23c | 196.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 189.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 54c | 177.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 39c | 170$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 37c | 160.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 75c | 155.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 63c | 143.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 142.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 15c | 134.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 132.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 75c | 131.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 126.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 120.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 11c | 113.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 109.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 31c | 108$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 95.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7c…9e02backed Yes | 49c | 92.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 32c | 87.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 82.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 41c | 79.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 79.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 65c | 76.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 72.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 70.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 69.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed No | 75c | 65.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 40c | 60.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…569ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 70c | 59.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 55.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 47c | 53.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 52.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 80c | 51.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 50.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 46.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 63c | 45.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 43.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 41c | 40.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…115fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 68c | 34.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…498abacked Yes | 51c | 33.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 34c | 29.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…770fbacked Yes | 39c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed No | 52c | 25.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked No | 68c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 49c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 75c | 23.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed No | 68c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 52c | 22.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 21.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 20.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 64c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 66c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.