TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes77c980.38$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.638239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes50c597.66$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.2111533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c574.77$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No11c455.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No6c429.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c365.22$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes72c332.62$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5411436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No23c327.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes33c299.8$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.9323823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes32c297.88$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.585440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes45c253.43$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes32c250.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.539270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No65c209.1$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7813748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e62…3a2abacked Yes43c197.34$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbed…6221backed No65c169.88$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.882948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No59c168.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10059440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c168.45$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c158.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c151.58$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.518,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes31c140.14$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.737727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No54c131.38$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.21,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes38c118.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.199040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes21c118.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.531,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes52c113.36$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.236737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c112.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes22c109.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.561,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes65c108$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.32630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes38c105.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.695334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed No70c102.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.485350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes33c101.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5316336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes50c100.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.511546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed No51c97.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes41c97.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3650648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes50c92.28$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.081,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No40c81.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6613531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes32c72.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.782,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes28c69.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3911128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes45c69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.074,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes37c68.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f0…dcb8backed Yes59c67.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.86450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed Yes30c64.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1610841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No45c64.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.894757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c62.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c62$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.863,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa286…1841backed Yes28c56.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+255.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No68c51.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2626169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes37c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0159818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No46c49.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2157232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes36c49.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c45.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6c…9e8dbacked Yes27c44.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No42c44.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3244553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No67c43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8154143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c42.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No45c42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.912223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No63c41.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.011,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a43…9a26backed No68c41.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8c…d084backed Yes40c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.193231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked No67c39.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.751030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes30c38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.481,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c35.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x01fc…498abacked Yes40c34.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.761040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No73c34.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes43c32.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8852533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7220144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x308f…3c47backed No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No69c28.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x685e…983abacked Yes46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No50c27.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.747233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…d561backed No62c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d4d…2a1bbacked Yes38c26.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb791…cb92backed No68c26.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No72c25.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5418351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc52…6ea2backed No59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeae3…ef70backed No72c24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.181070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No68c23.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes67c20.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.926065%39 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No68c20.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0176371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f7…fd31backed No58c20.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7312535.2%44 W · 81 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.414953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes67c19.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked No64c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.524429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9575…0d20backed No70c16.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No67c15.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.