Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa787c2f1b257d0138eca3acedd6a1c75db36c9741690db46d11c24e8ed9099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 77c | 980.38$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.63 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 50c | 597.66$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.21 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 574.77$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 455.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 429.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 365.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 72c | 332.62$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.54 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 23c | 327.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 299.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.93 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 32c | 297.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.58 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 45c | 253.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 250.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 65c | 209.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…3a2abacked Yes | 43c | 197.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 65c | 169.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 168.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 168.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 158.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 151.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 31c | 140.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 131.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 38c | 118.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 118.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 52c | 113.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 112.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 109.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes | 65c | 108$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 70c | 102.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 33c | 101.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 50c | 100.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 51c | 97.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 97.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 92.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 40c | 81.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 72.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 68.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…dcb8backed Yes | 59c | 67.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 30c | 64.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 45c | 64.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 62.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa286…1841backed Yes | 28c | 56.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +255.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 51.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 49.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 45.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…9e8dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 42c | 44.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 42.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 41.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…9a26backed No | 68c | 41.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 67c | 39.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 35.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…498abacked Yes | 40c | 34.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 43c | 32.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…3c47backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 27.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…2a1bbacked Yes | 38c | 26.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…cb92backed No | 68c | 26.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 72c | 25.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…ef70backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 68c | 23.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 67c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 20.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 58c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0d20backed No | 70c | 16.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.