TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,260 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes7c674.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes18c600$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7411533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c481.92$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes10c417.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.651,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c312.54$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.862,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes19c310$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.94,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes38c298.49$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9823823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes36c281.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes8c238.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7129137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No78c228$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9742857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes15c223.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes9c220$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7813748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c200.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf083…3428backed Yes11c179.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.284126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c169.62$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.433,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes28c156.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7820025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes7c155$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c149.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.572,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…ec6ebacked Yes36c139.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-66.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No71c137.71$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef7…d842backed Yes19c122.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes29c116.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.17727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes19c115.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes26c114.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.691,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c28…73a4backed No80c112.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c80…99fdbacked Yes12c112.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No69c112.19$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0511878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29d4…1853backed Yes11c108.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1933726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3336930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3816336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8810841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01fc…498abacked Yes34c89.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes28c89.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2555942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c88.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.663,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes34c88.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22fe…20c6backed No69c86.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.85350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x685e…983abacked Yes25c85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.052445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No69c84.73$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.233,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes24c84.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c79.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.582,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No67c74.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.641,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes29c69.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2911128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes32c61.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c60.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.692,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.622728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8c…d084backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No68c57.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2727756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes33c48.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1642438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No72c41.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7552245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes32c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.331,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6af…fc2fbacked No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53164.5%20 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de1…5301backed No62c32.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.126985.5%59 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.011,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbed…6221backed No68c31.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed No70c30.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.989160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b714backed No69c30.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.341457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.554037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No65c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed No68c29.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4419449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No70c28.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.374757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No66c26.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1715558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes40c25.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae3…ef70backed No72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No76c23.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7418351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x130b…d0bcbacked No66c22.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No66c22.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.624245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2718761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No71c20.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.414953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No69c18.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No76c17.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.281,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No67c15.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0340777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8267…f7b7backed No68c14.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7111656.9%66 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7310360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.