Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6544bb4119990c95f46bf155efccadc9cb5453961f4c644cf874d074bc10533

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,381,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $926,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,381,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 581 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	119,868$9,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,836.56	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	36c	50,599$18,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,999.83	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb67f…8077backed Yes	0c	50,130$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	10c	21,257$2,224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,224.06	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	20,344$1,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,898.9	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	13,425$1,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,033.51	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	11,778$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	14c	11,504$1,645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,645.16	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	10c	11,219$1,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.02	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	11,076$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.45	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	21c	10,872$2,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,230.73	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	10,842$1,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,263.65	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	11c	10,833$1,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,150	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	9c	10,560$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde4c…fa5fbacked Yes	23c	10,000$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,349.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e7…9641backed No	77c	9,970$7,630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,340.26	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	18c	9,665$1,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750.73	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	32c	9,583$3,069 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,068.75	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	21c	9,570$2,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,038.73	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	17c	9,308$1,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,596.32	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	10c	9,216$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.27	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	8,835$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.9	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	13c	8,231$1,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109.32	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	8,171$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.61	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	13c	8,064$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.68	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	7,879$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.19	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	20c	7,529$1,526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,525.81	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	11c	7,202$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.92	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	12c	6,909$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.59	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	13c	6,737$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.36	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	19c	6,735$1,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247.08	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…4e78backed Yes	22c	6,576$1,428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,427.8	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	6,539$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	6,457$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	24c	6,024$1,418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,418.39	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	6,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	11c	5,879$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	5,784$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.62	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	9c	5,662$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	12c	5,603$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.88	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	26c	5,586$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440.14	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	13c	5,455$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.67	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	75c	5,255$3,940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,314.87	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	17c	5,252$881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880.94	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	9c	5,184$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.99	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	9c	5,000$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	14c	4,867$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.71	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	4c	4,810$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.79	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9399…f11cbacked Yes	22c	4,586$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	4,544$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	8c	4,444$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.76	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	6c	4,232$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.07	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,176$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	16c	4,175$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.31	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No	73c	3,878$2,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,057.88	51	74.5%38 W · 13 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	10c	3,773$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.17	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	3,758$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.76	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	6c	3,645$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.22	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	13c	3,609$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.92	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1a75backed Yes	9c	3,607$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.41	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	35c	3,566$1,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,263.24	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	8c	3,216$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.76	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes	38c	3,200$1,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,226.12	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	7c	3,148$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed No	77c	3,048$2,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$699.75	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	2,992$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.25	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	25c	2,956$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.2	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	64c	2,912$1,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,053.35	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	7c	2,896$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.08	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	2,870$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.9	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	2,759$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.53	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes	38c	2,740$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032.23	71	32.4%23 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	18c	2,730$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.48	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	3c	2,701$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.37	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9c…45babacked Yes	27c	2,687$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.69	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	7c	2,644$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.38	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	23c	2,640$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.82	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	17c	2,402$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.17	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	7c	2,400$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.4	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	15c	2,374$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.1	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	13c	2,370$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.39	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes	40c	2,358$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.44	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	13c	2,336$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.92	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	32c	2,300$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.67	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	2,251$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.49	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	14c	2,155$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes	16c	2,139$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.21	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	0c	2,109$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes	33c	2,080$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.79	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	18c	2,048$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.8	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	12c	2,007$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.82	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	7c	2,006$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.14	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	15c	1,999$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91c…985ebacked Yes	18c	1,878$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.43	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	10c	1,856$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.71	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4a…d721backed Yes	36c	1,848$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.14	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	19c	1,829$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.31	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes	10c	1,822$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event