TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,489 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x599c…e175backed Yes0c23,552$35 inLost-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a14…5020backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes1c6,000$30 inLost-$305815.5%9 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+98.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c5,756$12 inLost-$11.515045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c5,344$17 inLost-$17.031,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c4,690$42 inLost-$42.214816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c4,381$39 inLost-$391,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes1c3,456$20 inLost-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes1c2,818$35 inLost-$35.4412614.3%18 W · 108 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,435$16 inLost-$16.011,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes1c2,341$18 inLost-$18.473408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost-$302777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes1c1,484$21 inLost-$21.1626411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c1,409$10 inLost-$10.167304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd651…c8a1backed Yes1c1,369$14 inLost-$13.6970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bda3backed Yes2c1,294$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c1,255$11 inLost-$11.261,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost-$11.981520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$10512%1 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05fd…3c2fbacked Yes1c948.66$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.