TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x562d…b739backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832b…8b8bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…f3e2backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…cebdbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78df…406abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed No1c3,053$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1132310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No11c1,480$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2359021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcda…bb51backed Yes75c1,361$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.983850%19 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No73c881.67$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.271,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed Yes77c802.57$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.4510184.2%85 W · 16 L+26.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+70.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes31c794$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.341,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c767.46$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No36c607.11$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes40c603.4$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.6318740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes41c574.32$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.264,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c519.92$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c492.1$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.866,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No11c482.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4333620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No49c473.38$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.052,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No7c458.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No57c420.89$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.011,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c329.01$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Yes44c310.07$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.62020%4 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No41c303.83$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.921,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3859…6903backed Yes36c291.21$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.91833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes41c269.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.943030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes34c261.07$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.611,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes40c253.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2713533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e7…9641backed Yes38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1552128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+85.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde4c…fa5fbacked No62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed No6c229.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92419.8%4 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8596…34c2backed No59c200.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.582466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes39c200.13$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes34c198.39$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked Yes57c174.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.14146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes30c169.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.991,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes35c166.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.621,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c163.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.551,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes49c156.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3513533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc08e…9594backed Yes27c155$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.651650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes68c154.23$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9632157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c149.89$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.814,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c146.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.037,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes13c137.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes37c134.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0533450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes56c130$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c129.23$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.811,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes41c125.88$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.881,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes14c120.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3114251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c118.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No68c117.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ea…266abacked No19c104.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7768…ee93backed Yes28c102$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9271…19eabacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.293063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x78f3…9d2cbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+157.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7419259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01f…ff34backed Yes38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes42c99.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.996358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes40c99.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2814632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c94.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.673,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd50…c0a8backed No62c93.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c92.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.53,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c92.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4611…3790backed Yes31c92.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.58319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes35c90.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.213930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No68c87.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8814961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c86.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.382,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No67c83.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No62c83.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.388969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No29c80.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes28c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2815334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes41c79.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.193633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No62c79.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8615339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes40c75.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.33148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes27c75.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.07742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes75c75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x483d…65f2backed No67c73.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.514344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes25c72.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4525725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes35c71.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.971,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No62c67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5412154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No61c65.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No67c64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8832760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.233,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No71c63.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0237669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b85…b31ebacked Yes41c61.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.521225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes31c61.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.227536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…916fbacked No57c61.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.54955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No41c60.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9418041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd0…df58backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc10…311fbacked Yes45c57.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c57.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.553,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes35c57.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4791…3b1abacked Yes28c56.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.632552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c56.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No73c54.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.791,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes59c53.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c53.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes63c52.05$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes35c51.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6545619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.