TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,461 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66aa…5203backed Yes0c5,023$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No79c1,716$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.461,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c1,623$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.214,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes34c957.91$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9732157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes22c828.29$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.24825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes19c794$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.921,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes30c720.19$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes28c712.64$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.666524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes8c702.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7718740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes20c586.55$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2147442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes13c557.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6716832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c469.43$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.3686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes9c449.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2913533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No59c437.02$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.211659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c419.82$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.61,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3859…6903backed Yes27c418.72$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.021833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c372.31$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes33c335.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.191,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No52c332.45$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No65c330.31$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes33c299.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…2dafbacked Yes10c299.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.965521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes54c295.39$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0890040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No61c287.11$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.077650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes26c266.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.083030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes24c254.16$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0334617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes5c232.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.621,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c227.76$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.048,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No39c227.07$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.111,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x772b…ab83backed Yes11c217.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid+66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked No69c217.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1533058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No64c216.93$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.261,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c209.78$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.246,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes10c200.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0713930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c178.39$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No73c175.49$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7119259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No77c151.31$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.99277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No80c134.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.541,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No72c130.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes39c126.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ee…2912backed No75c125.78$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.863948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No63c124.21$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes8c122.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c55…a735backed Yes27c119.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No68c112.28$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.277,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d9…5f20backed Yes10c110.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5480%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No16c101.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5134319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes35c101.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.176358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No76c95.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.181,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes13c95.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadbe…6cecbacked No74c88.62$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.331662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c87.03$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c86.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed Yes55c86.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4210924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c84.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No77c83.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8910780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5374…d802backed Yes27c81.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.863125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes32c78.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c77.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.422,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4791…3b1abacked Yes14c76.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.392552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No65c72.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2314961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5194…1dcabacked Yes29c71.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82336.1%2 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes34c68.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No63c64.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes25c63.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No41c60.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8718041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd0…df58backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.341770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No70c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.487754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6036…916fbacked No67c55.52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No70c54.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.471,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fbc…186dbacked No72c50.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.993540%14 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-40.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.556265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x675c…5af6backed No27c48.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.874967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes40c48.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1949750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No70c47.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3833567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c47.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.782,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56b…06b7backed Yes33c45.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154522.2%10 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Yes46c43.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…4e69backed No69c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.841250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff2f…f102backed No75c41.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes49c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes27c40.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2523022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed No41c39.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.246418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c69…9867backed Yes43c38.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.681758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No67c37.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.414158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe013…764fbacked Yes43c33.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.496744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bf…5d72backed Yes46c33.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ea…266abacked No62c32.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No46c31.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.122344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes47c31.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.627540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.310371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68339.8%33 W · 50 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe2…c8f2backed No37c29.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.