Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f04a53678be118957a2829a197418b37f0c36d613c074538116ed32a010cb91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 0c | 5,023$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 79c | 1,716$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.46 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,623$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 34c | 957.91$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.97 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes | 22c | 828.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 794$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 30c | 720.19$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.67 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 28c | 712.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 8c | 702.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 20c | 586.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 13c | 557.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 469.43$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 9c | 449.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 59c | 437.02$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 419.82$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 27c | 418.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 372.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 335.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 52c | 332.45$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 330.31$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 10c | 299.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 54c | 295.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 61c | 287.11$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 26c | 266.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 24c | 254.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 232.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 227.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 39c | 227.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…ab83backed Yes | 11c | 217.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 69c | 217.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 64c | 216.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 209.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 10c | 200.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 178.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 73c | 175.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 77c | 151.31$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 134.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 130.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 39c | 126.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 75c | 125.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 124.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 8c | 122.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…a735backed Yes | 27c | 119.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 112.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5f20backed Yes | 10c | 110.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 16c | 101.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 35c | 101.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 95.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 95.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked No | 74c | 88.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 87.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 86.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 55c | 86.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 84.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 83.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 27c | 81.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 78.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 77.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked Yes | 14c | 76.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 72.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 29c | 71.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 34c | 68.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 64.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes | 25c | 63.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 70c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…916fbacked No | 67c | 55.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 54.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 72c | 50.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 27c | 48.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 48.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 47.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 47.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed Yes | 33c | 45.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…f102backed No | 75c | 41.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 27c | 40.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed No | 41c | 39.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 43c | 38.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 67c | 37.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 43c | 33.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…5d72backed Yes | 46c | 33.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…266abacked No | 62c | 32.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 31.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…c8f2backed No | 37c | 29.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.